DAILY FANTASY NASCAR Preview And Picks For Draftkings – Supermarket Heroes 500 (Bristol)

It’s Bristol baby! NASCAR heads to the World’s Fastest Half-Mile this week in Bristol, TN. This place is always exciting and I look forward to another hectic day. It has been a fun return to racing with so many races bunched together. Let’s continue to crush today!

The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!

I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!

TRACK STRATEGY

Bristol is a very steep short track. Something that I touched on in the season preview article was that there is a different package in 2020 for short tracks and road courses. The package emphasizes driver skill, which is already very important here at Bristol. 

This week I am looking for 2-3 dominators in my lineups. With 500 laps we have the potential for tons of dominator points, so you can’t solely load up on place differential plays. Chris posted some stats on this in our Slack channel, so be sure to check that out!

$10K+ RANGE

This range is obviously loaded with top talent in the Cup Series. I will touch on my favorites below, but I want to mention that I am a bit worried about what we’ve saw out of Kyle Busch so far this year. This is a track he loves, so maybe we see him come back to life. He is someone I still won’t have heavy ownership on this weekend.

  • Kevin Harvick ($12,200) Starting 8th – Harvick has been really good since the return. He is a car I could see dominating this race for a portion. Maybe he comes in a bit lower ownership than usual based on his recent track history not being the best. He finished 2nd with this package in Phoenix earlier this year. Chase Elliott ($11,300) Starting 6th – Finally broke through and picked up the win on Thursday night in Charlotte. It was long overdue for a guy who has been in one of the best cars in 2020. I like him to use this confidence for some more good finishes. Chase started from the pole and led 93 laps in Phoenix with this package.

Notables: Joey Logano

$8K AND $9K RANGE

Another stacked range here that has 2 of my favorite dominators. 

  • Brad Keselowski ($9,100) Starting 1st- Brad will he popular but I don’t see how you fade him in this spot. He is fairly cheap, will have the first chance to lead this race (those laps tick by pretty quick) and with this package he led the 2nd most laps to Chase with 82 at Phoenix. Track history isn’t great, but did finish 3rd in the fall.
  • Ryan Blaney ($8,600) Starting 4th- I like this play for tournaments. I have been on Blaney a lot during this return to racing and no reason to hop off here. 10th, 4th and 7th in his last 3 at Bristol. Car has been very good this year and I think he can dominate a portion of this race.

Notables: Kurt Busch

$6K AND $7K RANGE

A lot of potential plays in this range and some are very underpriced. I plan to mix and match these plays as this is a loaded range for value.

  • Bubba Wallace ($7,500) Starting 36th – What a disappointing end to Charlotte for Bubba. Was running so well, but made contact with the wall sending him towards the back. It was nice of him to show that speed though. He has been decent here and starting 36th gives us some upside.
  • Erik Jones ($7,000) Starting 15th – Maybe I’m a fish, but what is this price? I think it is way too cheap and I think Jones can potentially give us a top 10, which would be great for this price. 
  • Ryan Newman ($6,800) Starting 17th- Another driver I think is too cheap. He has been popular recently but at $6,800 I think he is a very good value. Good history here at Bristol.

Notables: Matt DiBenedetto, Christopher Bell, Ryan Preece, Daniel Suarez

BELOW $6K RANGE

There are so many plays in that range just above, but I do see some value here if you are jamming in the top priced drivers.

  • Michael McDowell ($4,900) Starting 25th – This is very cheap for McDowell. If he can finish around where he is or around 20th he will pay off and allow you to get a lot of top guys in your lineup. As always, down here spread your exposure and don’t go all in on one guy.

Notables: Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek

Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Let’s keep the hot streak alive for RotoPros!

DAILY FANTASY NASCAR Preview And Picks For Draftkings – Folds Of Honor Quik Trip 500 (Atlanta)

NASCAR shifts to Hotlanta as we continue our return to racing. We have another full week ahead of us with Martinsville on Wednesday then Homestead next weekend. I personally am loving this bunched schedule, even though I’m sure it is hard on the teams.

The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!

I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!

TRACK STRATEGY

Atlanta is a track that I view as a mix of Charlotte and Darlington. The track kind of resembles Charlotte but adds the tire wear that we have at Darlington. We should see most everyone want 4 fresh tires on pit stops as opposed to Charlotte where we saw guys involving strategy to get track position.

I think we see a 2-3 dominator race today and that is how I plan to build my lineups. DraftKings has started to adjust pricing to qualifying but they still end up being off on a few guys in my opinion. I’ll touch a bit more on strategy as we go through the price ranges.

$10K+ RANGE

I think that we have enough value this week to be in this range in a lot of our builds. My thoughts here are with limited lineups, I don’t expect to have much of any driver except the one listed below.

  • Kevin Harvick ($11,700) Starting 9th – Harvick has had a really good race car since we came back racing and he’s been great here in the past. 5 straight top 10s here and I fully expect him to compete for the win today. Love his experience with high tire wear.

Notables: Jimmie Johnson

$8K AND $9K RANGE

This is an exciting range with some dominators as well as place differential drivers. You can load up here with some of the value to start some lineups, without going up in the $10k range.

  • Chase Elliott ($9,900) Starting 1st- How can you not play Chase right now. He has been one of the best cars all year and starts on the pole today. The only thing that worries me a bit is if we get a competition caution. This has shaken up things a little bit recently at the start of the race. I still think Chase has a good enough car to dominate some of this race even if he does lose the lead at the caution.
  • Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600) Starting 11th – will people stop playing Truex due to his finishes recently? I hope so. He has been so good here and I can’t help but expect for these guys to figure it out soon.
  • Tyler Reddick ($8,300) Starting 24th – These RCR cars have been really good this year. I am very impressed with how Reddick has done as a rookie. Starting back in 24th I really like his place differential upside today.

Notables: Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch

$6K AND $7K RANGE

A lot of potential plays in this range and some are very underpriced. Again once we get down here feel free to mix and match with your top priced drivers

  • Erik Jones ($6,600) Starting 14th – What is DK doing with his price right now? This is absurdly cheap for Jones. If he can finish around here or on the cusp of a top 10 I’d be very happy.
  • Cole Custer ($6,100) Starting 31st – This is a very good price for Custer starting this far back. Maybe his teammate Harvick gave him some tips…

Notables: Matt DiBenedetto, Christopher Bell

BELOW $6K RANGE

There are so many plays in that range just above, but I do see some value here if you are jamming in the top priced drivers.

  • Michael McDowell ($5,200) Starting 36th – This is very cheap for the starting spot. He can help you fit in guys like Harvick pretty easily, but as always please don’t play massive amounts of guys down here. The $6k range has some great value so I don’t think you have to punt down here in a lot of lineups.

Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Let’s keep rolling!

DAILY FANTASY NASCAR Preview And Picks For Draftkings – Dixie Vodka 400 (Homestead)

It has been an absolutely full weekend down in Miami. 2 Xfinity races and a truck race, proceeding this Cup race. In the past NASCAR has gone to Homestead for the season finale in November. This year that finale will be in Phoenix and we get Homestead much earlier in the year. We have a lot of history and data to look at for this track so let’s crush this weekend.

The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!

I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!

TRACK STRATEGY

This week we are looking for 2-3 dominators. Compared to last week, we will see no near the tire wear and should see even more competition for position. I haven’t played with many builds yet, but on first look it does look like DraftKings did a good job with pricing this week overall. 

It is always a fun race when we come here and should see a little strategy throughout the race. I am going to continue to focus on recent form, due the fact that these races have been so close together. I don’t see that these teams can possibly be as prepared as they normally would. Also, as usual no practice or qualifying.

$10K+ RANGE

I think there is plenty of value again that you can get up in this range. Most of the guys up here are the ones that have been competing for championships at Homestead Miami over recent years. All have had decent success here. 

  • Martin Truex Jr ($11,400) Starting 6th – Ok I’m not being a homer I promise. As we have talked about for the last few weeks it seems like the Toyotas have found something (Other than their issues to start at Martinsville). I really like that combined with the fact that Truex has 3 straight top 2 finishes here. 
  • Kyle Busch ($10,100) Starting 4th – Kyle continues to struggle just a bit. I am going to continue this trend though and ride with the Toyotas. I feel like he is just too cheap. He won this race to win the championship last year. You have to expect him to turn things around at some point this year and I want to be there when he does. Maybe he carries his momentum from tonight’s Truck race into tomorrow. 

Notables: Kevin Harvick

$8K AND $9K RANGE

I’m not in love with this range like I usually am this week. We do have a couple guys we can target for PD upside or some guys if you want to get a low owned dominator. 

  • Matt DiBenedetto ($8,000) Starting 23rd – I’m going straight to the bottom of this range. I like the way he has been running lately and like the upside he brings starting 23rd. I don’t think I will have much ownership on the dominators in this range, but plan to get my exposure to the PD guys.

Notables: Matt Kenseth, Christopher Bell

$6K AND $7K RANGE

Some good value again down here that we can mix and match with our favorite top priced dominators. 

  • Erik Jones ($6,500) Starting 15th – He almost feels like the same play as he has been the last few races. I really like Jones this week along with his teammates Kyle and Truex. I’ll say it again, he gives us top 5-10 upside for $6,500. I’ll take that being in a Joe Gibbs Toyota.
  • Cole Custer ($6,000) Starting 35th – He is going to be chalky I’m sure but he is just a fantastic play starting this far back. Over the last 3 years in Xfinity he has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st at Homestead. Cash game lock on DK and I expect to be heavy on him in tournaments. 

Notables: Aric Almirola, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon

BELOW $6K RANGE

I think there are a couple options down here if you want to jam in more than one very top priced driver. Much like last week, that $6k range is much better than coming down here but I don’t mind it if you need the salary. 

  • Ryan Preece ($5,700) Starting 33rd – Preece, in my opinion has top 20 upside and that would be more than enough at this price. Not a guy you want to just go super heavy on, but is another one to mix and match into your lineups for value. 

Notables: Michael McDowell

Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Good luck to everyone this weekend!

DAILY FANTASY NASCAR Preview And Picks For Draftkings – Geico 500 (Talladega)

Back to a Superspeedway we go this weekend at Talladega! These races are always unpredictable, but it is super important to understand lineup construction so you can position yourself to take advantage of the chaos. I am really going to dive into strategy this week as it is the most important thing.

The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!

I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!

TRACK STRATEGY

Superspeedways are a different beast when it comes to DFS NASCAR. We are going to be loading up on place differential guys this weekend to position ourselves to benefit from wrecks and other unpredictable events. I expect laps led and fastest laps to be spread out through the field, which mitigates the chance that someone will be a dominator. Something I will do in my 20-max build is limit the number of drivers I have in my lineups starting towards the front. In all of my lineups I will only have max 2 drivers starting in the top 10-15. This is due to the downside that they present in a race that can be this chaotic. 3-4 drivers in my lineups will most likely be starting 25th on back. This is where we can really find place differential guys that have the upside to move ahead a bunch of positions. I will touch on how each driver matches my plan for building below. 

Something that we saw at Daytona was manufacturers/teams working together a lot. I do expect that we will see that in this race and maybe is something I incorporate into a few builds. If you have a group of 2 or 3 guys who do that on the last lap then that could win you a tournament, so this is just another way to enhance the upside of your teams.

As far as contest selection for the week, it is important to make as many lineups as you can. Obviously, stay within your bankroll but DraftKings has some nice 20-max contests at different levels. With the unpredictability of this race it is tough to only play one single entry. My plan is to play the 20-maxes and then some single entry tournaments, so this is how my strategy talk will be geared. 

The last thing I will say on strategy is don’t be afraid to leave a bunch of money on the table and don’t be scared to play some of these driver’s with smaller teams that aren’t necessarily in the best equipment. The guys starting in the very back can move up 10-15 spots basically just due to wrecks and pay off their price tag. Another thing to keep in mind with them is that they will probably all just ride together in the back and stay out of trouble in this race. Not wrecking is half the battle here. If you all have any questions regarding strategy feel free to hit me up in Slack. Building lineups in the correct way will give you the biggest edge this weekend.

$10K+ RANGE

These 3 guys fall into the range where I am limiting the number of drivers in my lineups. Salary will hardly be an issue for me this weekend so I am fine having some exposure to these drivers across my lineups.

  • Joey Logano ($10,200) Starting 9th – At least Logano is starting near the back of the top 10. He has been very good here in the past and a guy that I want a bit of exposure to when I am playing guys up here.
$8K AND $9K RANGE

A lot of this range is the top 10 starting spots. Like I said I will limit my exposure to those guys a lot but will have a lot of 2 guys here.

  • Christopher Bell ($9,700) Starting 35th – I expect Bell to be popular but I am hoping that this price scares some of the new players off. He provides massive floor and upside starting this far back and since salary won’t matter I am perfectly fine with having large amounts of Bell.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,400) Starting 20th – Wrecky at a superspeedway can go one of two ways. He either posts a top finish like he has in the past here, or he wrecks like the Stenhouse we know and love. I am definitely willing to take the gamble on him tomorrow, because I know what his upside can be.
$6K AND $7K RANGE

This range will be a lot of mixing and matching for me. I will be heavily exposed to some plays here due to their starting spots. 

  • Brendan Gaughan (7,600) Starting 39th – If you remember back to the Daytona 500, we were heavy on Gaughan there starting near the back. He paid that off with a 7th place finish. He will start at the back of the field at Talladega and the Superspeedway specialist provides great value.
  • Ty Dillon ($7,100) Starting 33rd – Ty has been good here in the past, which makes me think he has a certain strategy at these races. Starting this far back I expect to have a lot of Ty.

Notables: Ryan Preece, Daniel Suarez, Corey LaJoie

BELOW $6K RANGE

I don’t necessarily have a driver I love down here but I am perfectly fine having exposure to some due to the type of race we have this weekend.

  • Chris Buescher ($5,600) Starting 21st – Definitely won’t be heavy on any one guy down here but I do like Buescher as an option to mix in tournament builds. He could potentially flirt with a top 10 which would be good for this range.

Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. Remember, don’t be afraid to get weird with your builds this week. Good luck to everyone!

DAILY FANTASY NASCAR Preview And Picks For Draftkings – Pocono Organics 325

We have another loaded weekend of NASCAR action at Pocono. This weekend was actually scheduled to be a doubleheader already at the beginning of the year, so this isn’t really unexpected for the teams. We always see exciting races at Pocono and I expect no different this weekend. 

The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!

I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!

TRACK STRATEGY

Since they are running 2 races in 2 days the races are shorter than what we usually see at Pocono. I think I am going to go for 1-2 dominators on Saturday. DK has priced a few place differential plays up, but I still like some of them when we have limited dominator points. 

I am going to focus on some past history here, but also on guys who have had fast cars this year. We will be able to learn a lot tomorrow about Sunday and adjust for race number 2. There will also be spots we can leverage ownership. Be sure to join us in Slack throughout the weekend for some updated thoughts!

$10K+ RANGE

This is an interesting range this week. We have Bell priced way up because he is starting 36th. I like the others a bit better than him as there is tons of downside risk to Bell. I personally like starting below this range a bit better for Saturday’s race and going balanced. 

  • Chase Elliott ($10,700) Starting 5th – Chase has plenty of upside this weekend. He had a great car this year. 6 top 10s in 8 races here at Pocono. He is my favorite dominator in the $10k + range on Saturday. I think ownership will be spread out up here in lineups that people start this high.

Notables: Kevin Harvick

$8K AND $9K RANGE

There are a lot of both place differential plays and dominators in this range. I really like going balanced here and mixing and matching a lot of these guys. 

  • Ryan Blaney ($9,000) Starting 2nd – Blaney has been good here in the past and has the car to dominate this race. If he can get around Almirola early on then he can definitely be one of the dominators in this race. This is a fine price for the upside that he possesses and there are some good plays around him that I don’t think his ownership gets out of control.
  • Clint Bowyer ($9,500) Starting 18th – I hope this price scares some people off. Bowyer has been very good at Pocono in the past and has tons of upside starting 18th. What makes me really like him is that there are some dominator plays I like cheaper than him, so it makes it a bit easier to fit him. 

Notables: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, William Byron

$6K AND $7K RANGE

Some good value again down here that we can mix and match with our favorite top priced dominators. 

  • Erik Jones ($7,100) Starting 19th – I’m going to go right back to him at this cheap of a price and if he kills me he kills me. 3 straight top 5s here at Pocono and starting 19th has tons of upside at $7,100. I’m a sucker I guess. 
  • Matt DiBenedetto ($7,600) Starting 21st – This is a play that I really had to compare with Aric Almirola on the matrix. I put Almirola in for 30 laps led and with that he would need an 8th place finish to beat Matty D finishing 15th. That leaves me leaning toward Matt, because I think he has upside of around a 10th place finish.

Notables: Aric Almirola

BELOW $6K RANGE

Man this range is tough this week. I don’t think I will need to come down here as much if I start my lineups balanced and there is really only one play I like down here if I have to play someone in this range. 

  • Ryan Preece ($5,800) Starting 30th – Preece probably gives us around 20th place upside tomorrow and is about the best you can ask for of anyone in this range. He works if you need to fit some higher priced drivers in. This is not someone that I am going to force in to loads of my lineups more than likely.

Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Good luck to everyone on this full weekend of racing!

DAILY FANTASY NASCAR Preview And Picks For Draftkings – Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400

A very fun weekend of racing concludes on Sunday with the Cup Series going 400 miles around Indy. This is usually one of the top races of the year that drivers want to win and kiss the bricks at the finish. The race has moved to July 4th weekend for the first time in 2020. This is usually an interesting race that sees strategy and pit road craziness with the small pit road. This is a race that will probably be affected by there being no practice and I wouldn’t be stunned if we saw some wild things happen early on.

The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!

I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!

TRACK STRATEGY

I will be going with 1-2 dominators in lineups this week. We should see drivers using a lot of strategy since track position is king here at Indy, much like last week at Pocono. This means that I am going to be mainly focusing on place differential plays or at least guys who are priced where they don’t need to get dominator points. 

We have seen 1 person dominate most of this race in the past, like Harvick last year, but as we have said in recent weeks, no practice and people using a lot of strategy lends itself to mixing up the leader in this race enough to spread dominator points out. I really can’t wait till we have practice and qualifying back, but that is a topic for another time.

$10K+ RANGE

Christopher Bell is once again priced as the most expensive driver, just like last Saturday at Pocono. He finished 4th in that race paying off his price tag. If you use the matrix, he can certainly pay off again with that type of finish, but where I ultimately land is that I like the other guys right below him more with their dominating/finish upside. The matrix tool really helps you compare these drivers on Chris’s sheet. 

  • Kevin Harvick ($11,000) Starting 11th – I don’t know how he is not your favorite play up here this week. He has the history here and he has had a great car lately. He even has a bit of place differential that even increases his upside. Pocono is a decent comp for Indianapolis and he just finished 1st and 2nd there last weekend. Fire up some Harvick this weekend. 

Notables: Denny Hamlin

$8K AND $9K RANGE

The place differential plays are the ones I like the most in this range. I’m not going to include Logano in the writeups below, but I do think he has a decent amount of upside. Where I am with him is I expect him to lead early on, but once the strategy kicks in at the competition caution, I could see things being shaken up. He was bad due to a few mistakes last weekend at Pocono and I ultimately like others a bit more. 

  • Clint Bowyer ($9,000) Starting 22nd – 2 straight top 5s here for Clint. The Stewart-Haas team has been very good at Indy and you can see I am liking them again this weekend. Starting mid pack, Bowyer provides us some upside. He should be able to build off 2 top 10s at Pocono last weekend. 
  • William Byron ($8,700) Starting 18th – Byron ran very well here a year ago running around 10th most of the day, but ended up with a 4th place finish. He had 2 decent finishes last weekend at Pocono and starting 18th, he is another guy who gives us some upside. I am hoping he goes a bit overlooked with the drivers around him like Jones.

Notables: Joey Logano, Erik Jones

$6K AND $7K RANGE

Once again we have some very nice place differential plays in this range. I hope my takes here are a bit different than the field this week and we can gain some leverage.

  • Ross Chastain ($6,400) Starting 32nd – Ross is a very interesting tournament play for me this weekend. He ran this car at Charlotte in the Coke 600 and finished 22nd. I think he has 15-20th place upside and that would do at $6,400. When at Charlotte there was some talk that this car had some Chip Ganassi funding and I am willing to take that gamble again here and maybe we can get him at fairly low ownership.
  • Matt Kenseth ($7,900) Starting 21st – Finally we saw a couple decent runs from Kenseth last weekend at Pocono finishing 11th and 12th. My hope is they can build on that this weekend at Indy. He has been good here in the past, obviously in different cars, but he should know his way around this place. 

Notables: Cole Custer, Ty Dillon

BELOW $6K RANGE

Not much down here again this week, but there are a few guys you can mix and match. As I always say, don’t get locked in on one driver down here as these are the ones that usually have the most variance from week to week. 

  • Ryan Preece ($5,800) Starting 36th – Preece was good in his only race in the Cup Series here last year finishing 16th. I wish we could take that and run right now, but I like the way he is running right now and I see top 20 upside again for him on Sunday. 

Notables: Ryan Newman, Michael McDowell

Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Good luck to everyone on Sunday and let’s keep the green screens rolling!

DAILY FANTASY NASCAR Preview And Picks For Draftkings – Quaker State 400

A jam packed race schedule continues, as the Cup Series ends a 4 day stretch of racing for NASCAR at Kentucky. After they leave Kentucky, they will go to Bristol on Wednesday for the All-Star race, which looks like it’s going to be very fun, and then to Texas on Sunday. This has been a demanding schedule for teams to get these cars ready, but pretty fun for us to watch.

The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!

I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!

TRACK STRATEGY

If you’ve watched the other races here this week, you know how hard it is to pass at Kentucky. The Cup cars should drive a bit better through the turns, which may make it easier for guys to pass hugging the while line. With that said I will probably focus on having 2 dominators in my lineups this weekend. With 267 laps that is plenty of time to rack up laps led/fastest laps. 

Someone I have been using a lot of this weekend so far is the pole sitter. It seems like they can get out to the lead and drive away a lot of the time, as drivers tend to not fight as hard for the lead at the very beginning of the race. I will be doing that again here.

$10K+ RANGE

We again have the same situation. Bell starting 34th and priced over $11k. I think he is fine, but I don’t plan on having massive amounts of him. 

  • Kyle Busch ($10,100) Starting 1st – Here is the pole sitter this week and I will have a good amount of exposure to him. He should be able to get out front and lead a good portion of this race and the competition caution being so early doesn’t change much for me since he has a great pit crew if he comes down pit road. This team will turn it around soon and pick up that first win of the season, it could be today.

Notables: Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell

$8K AND $9K RANGE

This is a loaded range for me this week. I like a couple dominators from here as well as place differential plays.

  • Martin Truex Jr ($9,100) Starting 9th – Truex has been really good here in the past and I like pairing him with Kyle for a few different reasons. Price makes it pretty easy to do so as Truex is well underpriced imo. Truex would dominate the race later on so that would give Kyle time to dominate for us. Lastly, if the Gibbs team as a whole hits on something then there is some correlation there as well.
  • Tyler Reddick ($8,200) Starting 24th – I like what this team has done in 2020 at these types of tracks. Starting 24th he has tons of upside and the price isn’t completely out of hand. In all 4 of his starts here in the Xfinity series he finished top 10 and had 1 win in 2017. 

Notables: Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones

$6K AND $7K RANGE

As much as I like the range above, I’m not overly excited about this one. There are still a couple plays here but if I fall in this range I will probably end up in the $6,000s more than the $7,000s.

  • Ryan Newman ($6,100) Starting 23rd – Newman looks like the new guy they will continuously price down here. This type of track seems to fit his MO. Don’t let anyone pass me. He is usually pretty good at just battling throughout the race to inch his way to the front and I like him a lot starting 23rd.
  • Austin Dillon ($6,500) Starting 19th – This play kind of goes back to my thoughts on Reddick. RCR has exceeded expectations this year and I think they can outperform where they are both starting this week and push for a top 10 finish. That would be great value at the price for Dillon.

Notables: Cole Custer, Ryan Preece

BELOW $6K RANGE

Not a ton down here once again and I like the low $6k range a lot more as a place to end my lineups. 

  • Michael McDowell ($5,700) Starting 30th – He is one of the 2 plays I like down here. You could use him to jam in 2 higher priced dominators. He should be “fine” but I don’t really see him as a guy who has massive upside.

Notables: John Hunter Nemechek

Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Good luck to everyone and let’s bring one home!

DAILY FANTASY GOLF – Dane’s Darts For The Players Championship

DANE’S DARTS: THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP

The 5th Major! The Players Championship is always one of the strongest fields in professional golf. This week we will see who is able to tame TPC Sawgrass. We have some massive prize pools for DFS this week and hopefully we can take advantage. This has always been an event that produces carnage (see Si Woo Kim’s win a few years ago). I am very excited for this week and can’t wait to track all of the action on the new Every Shot Live through PGA Tour Live. We will be able to see every player’s shots this week as a trial run for something that hopefully becomes more widespread in years to come.

As always, be sure to check out the RotoPros PGA Preview Show that Chris and I record on Monday evenings. You can find the video version on YouTube via the RotoPros channel and the audio version on the SoundCloud app on the RotoPros page. There we discuss the course and a general overview of our strategy for the week. If you subscribe to the RotoPros channel on YouTube or SoundCloud you will be notified each time a new episode is posted!

As mentioned, my goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can be different through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games.  

 I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Gup’s Corner. If you haven’t heard of them, I would highly recommend checking out their products. New this year Gup and the crew released golf tools that include a research center. The research center is where I build my models and where I will reference stat info in each of my articles. Check them out! www.gupscorner.com

COURSE & KEY STATS

TPC Sawgrass is a course that was built to be a complete test of a golfer’s game. There are drivable par 4s, reachable par 5s, long and tough par 4s and a variance of par 3 yardages. There will be no keying in on a certain proximity range this week as you better be in control of every club in your bag if you want to do well. The greens here are a bit smaller than average and they play very fast with a lot of undulations.

With that being said I am going to be focusing on great approach players this week. Over the years, approach play has been a major cog in deciding a winner here with the exception of Webb Simpson in 2018. Below are my key stats in my stat model this week.

Key Stats

  • SG: Approach (35%)
  • SG: Ball Striking (20%)
  • Par 4 Scoring (15%)
  • SG: Around the Green (10%)
  • DK Points (10%)
  • Bogey Avoidance (10%)
WEATHER

Currently, it doesn’t look like there is going to be much wind early in the week. This is a major defense for a Florida course, which we saw the last couple weeks. I expect scoring to be pretty good as long as the winds stay low. 

Last year the tournament moved back to March after being played in May since the early 2000s. This added a few things to the mix. At this time of year the course doesn’t play as firm and fast as it does in May. This, in addition to the rain that came through leading up to the 2019 version of The Players, made the course be a little more receptive than usual. Golfers were hitting more drivers off the tee as opposed to driving irons/woods. This year I think it will play a bit firmer than last year due to the lack of rain in the area.

OVERALL STRATEGY

I mentioned on the pod that I really don’t mind either lineup build this week. Stars and scrubs are made a bit easier due to the value guys we have down the $7K range but with how strong the field is through the mid range I could see myself going a touch more balanced. Because I like the value guys, some of my lineups may jam some of the $8K and $9K golfers in to produce kind of a hybrid lineup. Still use the scrubs, but use a lot of the mid range players. I am definitely not opposed to going up top which I will get to in the next section. I don’t think we will see the same type of ownership as we did last week on Rory mainly due to the field. 

I am favoring recent form a bit as opposed to course history due to the fact that I want my golfers to be in complete control of their game this week. With all of this being said let’s jump into some of my favorite plays in each price range.

$10K + RANGE

I can’t fault anyone for wanting to play the defending champion Rory McIlory this week. I will be interested to see what the ownership projections are for this range come Wednesday night. I have a feeling a decent amount are going to play the guys at the top and bottom, Rory and DJ. I will not be able to get there on DJ regardless. I just don’t like his form and with water lurking everywhere I will go in a different direction this week. I hope he gets popular.

  • Rory McIlroy ($11,700) – He is definitely the best player in the world right now, no doubt about it. I won’t regurgitate all the stats but like I always say, it’s not is he a good play it’s can you get up to him. I think you can with all the value down low. We talked about it in the Slack yesterday, I can’t believe this guy doesn’t win more than he does. The defending champ is my favorite play if paying up this week. 
  • Justin Thomas ($10,800) – It has been an up and down year for JT. He has a win, 3rd and 6th place finish but has 2 missed cuts sandwiched in between. He probably should have won his last tournament out in Mexico but wasn’t able to get it done on Sunday. He ranks near the top in all stats this week and actually ranks 1st in my stat model over the long term (50 and 100 rounds). I like JT as a pivot to Rory for GPPs this week.
$9K RANGE

This is where we really start to find the goods this week. I am in love with a lot of this range and can see myself starting a lot of lineups here. Some will be popular but I plan to get different with how I build my lineups. Most that go balanced won’t drop very far down the list to round out their lineups. As you will see below. I don’t mind that this week.

  • Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100) – One of my favorite plays on the board. I really like his form with a 5th, 2nd and 4th in his last 3. He has made the cut in both appearances at Sawgrass with a 37th in 2018 and a 20th last year. He is a golfer that I like to play the more he comes back to one course because I believe he figures them out more and more each year. Love how he finished last week and he will for sure be a staple in my lineups this week, whether it be cash or GPPs.
  • Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) – This place is a great fit for Tommy. He is a magnificent ball striker and can grind with the best of them (see his US Open history). He missed the cut last week after a very tough ending to his week at the Honda Classic. I think having the weekend off will help him. You can tell by his history here that he really fits, 3 made cuts in 3 tries, including a 7th and a 5th the last 2 years.

Notables – Xander Schauffele

$8K RANGE

Another strong range and this is where you can really start to see the strength of the field. A lot of these guys are always in the $9Ks. You can play them in a lot of different lineup builds.

  • Gary Woodland ($8,300) – Love Gary this week due to a lot of reasons. His recent form has been spectacular with a 12th and an 8th his last 2 times out. He gained 7.6 strokes on approach at the Honda Classic. This is exactly what we need this week. Gary doesn’t have the best history here but he has been a different player over the last year. He looks closer to the player that we saw at Pebble Beach last year and I want to be onboard. Love the price of $8,300 for cash and GPPs.
  • Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800) – Hideki grades out really well for me this week and is 2nd in my overall model. He lost 6 strokes putting in his first event in Florida this year so if his 2nd straight week on Bermuda is any better than he should have a strong week. The rest of his game has been on fire. 

Notables: Sungjae Im, Patrick Reed

$7K RANGE

Lots of good value in this range. Some will be extra chalky, so I’ll be watching these bottom 2 ranges closely come Wednesday night. 

  • Collin Morikawa ($7,900) – Once again won’t be getting off Morikawa. I really like how he lines up for TPC Sawgrass. Great iron player and can score in bunches on the par 5s. This will be his debut here. This price may make him a little popular but I still want to have exposure to him at a bit of a discount because I think he can still compete in a loaded field. Gained 10.6 strokes on approach last week and that may sound like an outlier but he also had over 6 SG:APP at both the Genesis and the Waste Management.
  • Erik Van Rooyen ($7,200) – This is a GPP only play for me but as he showed in Mexico, he has massive upside. When he is on he is good in every area we want this week. A terrific ball striker and with a decent week on the greens we could see him pop here. 
  • Tyrell Hatton ($7,400) – What a week it was for Hatton breaking through for the first time on the PGA Tour. He could be a complete disaster after partying all week. Also, he might get pretty popular as well. This is the guy I will be watching ownership with the most come tomorrow night. If he is chalk I’ll be off, if not then I will definitely play him. I love how he has been playing coming off injury and at average ownership I’ll be on him again. 

Notables: Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Matt Wallace

$6K RANGE

There are 3 guys I really like down here. Again, my decision could come down to ownership tomorrow night. I will be sure to update you all in the Slack tomorrow night if my order here changes at all.

  • Harold Varner III ($6,900) – Really like HV3 this week. He has made 3 of 4 cuts here and that includes a 7th place finish in 2018. This course suits his game. He has been great on approach and can score on these par 5s. I don’t think his ownership will be super high so fire him up this week.
  • Max Homa ($6,600) – Absolutely love his form. He has been on fire to start the year. His last 5 tournament form reads 9th, 6th, 14th, 5th and 24th. He gained 6.3 strokes on approach last week at Bay Hill and I think he can go well on his debut at Sawgrass. The other guy I like down here is Joel Dahmen. Currently, I think that Dahmen will be a decent amount higher owned than Homa, so I lean Homa for GPPs. Will update if this changes tomorrow night. As Chris mentioned on the show, you could pair 2 of these guys together to really open up the rest of your lineup. 

Notables: Joel Dahmen

If you guys have any questions please let me know in the Slack! Be sure to watch or listen to this week’s RotoPros PGA Preview Show where Chris and I break down the course, weather and some of our favorite plays. Also, please join us tomorrow night in the chat for a live “pre lock” type chat. We will talk about the current weather forecast (if changed) and any updated plays we like! See you then!

DAILY FANTASY GOLF – Dane’s Darts For The Charles Schwab Challenge

DANE’S DARTS: CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE

FINALLY!!!! The PGA Tour returns this week at Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. OK… I am a little bit excited and how couldn’t you be with how strong the field is this week in addition to some MASSIVE prize pools on DK and Fanduel. It feels like so long ago that THE Players Championship was being cancelled after round 1. This week will be very interesting on a lot of levels, which I will dive into below.

As always, be sure to check out the RotoPros LIVE golf show that Chris and I record each week on Wednesday nights. You can find the show on YouTube via the RotoPros channel. There we discuss the course and a general overview of our strategy for the week. If you subscribe to the RotoPros channel on YouTube you will be notified each time we go live!

My goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can gain an edge through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games. 

I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.

COURSE & KEY STATS

Colonial Country Club is one of the oldest courses on the PGA Tour. It is a course that we probably won’t see a massive birdiefest, which is something I love. The winning score here usually gets into double digits under par but doesn’t approach -20 very often. A lot of this depends on the weather which I will touch on below. 

This week I am going to incorporate a lot of ball striking/approach play into my model. In addition, I am going to weigh fairways gained in my model which helps reflect driving accuracy. We need guys to be in the fairway this week to be able to hit these greens. The rough is sometimes thick here and I want guys who can position themselves well off the tee. When it comes to the high end players, I won’t let this be an end all as most of them can adapt to any type of course. This will come into play more with the lower end of the price ranges. 

The greens here are Bent grass and tee to green is Bermuda. Make sure you check out Chris’s sheet to see his new “Putting Splits” tab. This will help you see who putts well on this grass type and you can use that as a factor in your research. 

Below is the list of stats I am factoring into my research this week. 

Key Stats

  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Ball Striking
  • Fairways Gained
  • GIRs Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Proximity 150-175
  • DK Points
WEATHER

It doesn’t look like the weather is going to play much of a factor this week. Obviously that could change over the next few days, but right now it looks like the highest wind will be late Thursday afternoon and that’s only 10-15 MPH. This should make scoring a bit better but I still expect an over par cut this week. I am pretty excited that we don’t have to worry about the weather on our first week back.

OVERALL STRATEGY

Wow, this should be an interesting week. Who knows how much preparation some of these guys have and I think it will be hard for anyone to know for sure. Regardless, most of these guys haven’t played in competition since The Players or before. 

What does this mean? Maybe some higher scores overall. One thing I will be really focusing on this week in ownership come Wednesday night. This is a week I will try as hard as possible to move away from chalk especially if there is some down in the cheaper ranges. Nobody knows what to expect this week and if I can get a massive ownership discount on a similar player then I’ll take it. Be sure to watch our show on Wednesday night where we will discuss some of the ownership projections. 

When it comes to recent form, guys don’t have any in our data. Of course they have been playing, but not in this type of setting. Due to that I am focusing a lot more on longer term numbers when it comes to my model, BUT this is a week that I will rely on my model a lot less than normal since these numbers are mostly from 3+ months ago. I expect that we will see some golfers who were struggling up until the break, come out and play well. Let’s hope we can find some of those at lower ownership and take down some of these massive GPPs.

$10K + RANGE

There are 4 guys up here this week. A very strong range with how deep this field is. I do think that a balanced lineup is viable this week, much like in majors. However, if I do end up in this range I plan to fall on the guy below, barring any major ownership discrepancies.

  • Rory McIlroy ($11,800) – I can’t go away from Rory in this range even though this will be his debut at Colonial. He ranks first in my stat model over the last 12, 24 and 50 rounds and would be first in my overall model if I took out course history. I don’t think you end up in this range in cash games but I am perfectly fine getting here in GPPs. As I have said all year. It’s not really a question of is Rory a good play, it’s do you have enough value to get to him.
$9K RANGE

Man what a loaded range. I think ownership will be fairly spread out here, but that is something I will be watching as we get closer to Wednesday night. I could definitely see starting in cash games here and going the balanced route. 

  • Collin Morikawa ($9,100) – I guess I kind of hoped that he would be in the $8k range, but I am perfectly fine playing Collin this week. Maybe in GPPs that will lower his ownership. Right now he looks like about the 3rd-4th highest owned in this range. He ranks 4th in my overall model and that is hurt by the fact that this is his debut here. Morikawa has been great tee to green since he came on tour and I am going to continue to ride him, especially since it is a bit tougher to hit these smaller greens. 
  • Brooks Koepka ($9,700) – OK.. This is one that falls into the category of I’m going a bit away from my model this week due to there being no recent form from any of these guys. He has been bad this year and I hope that lowers his ownership for GPPs. This is not a cash play but if he comes in around 10% owned in GPPs, sign me up. He has as much upside as anyone in this field and maybe the layoff helped him (this is a narrative I’m going to use to take some shots on guys for GPPs). 

Notables: Sung-Jae Im

$8K RANGE

When you look at this range you really can see how deep the field is going. I like plenty here but will be keying in on a few guys. Feel free to mix and match if you are multi entering. 

  • Gary Woodland ($8,800) – It was a pretty nice start to the year for Gary and I really liked the way he was trending. I actually had a Masters future on him (still do). He has only played here one time and that was way back in 2012. He is a much different golfer now. Gary has excelled at places that he is able to club down off the tee and then attack the greens. I like this fit for him. Ranks 5th in my overall model without course history. 
  • Marc Leishman ($8,900) – Another guy who started out the season hot. He hasn’t been great here in the past, but I still like Leishman as maybe a guy who is passed over a little bit. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 4th in ball striking and 2nd in this field on approach. A lot of these golfers are pretty even to me in this range and I may let ownership dictate who I am overweight on.

Notables: Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth (check ownership)

$7K RANGE

This range as always has tons of guys and they can fit any type of build. Due to this sometimes we will see ownership a little more concentrated on a few plays if people start zoning in on certain guys in both balanced and stars and scrubs builds. This is the range I really start wanting to fade the chalk, especially on a week like this. 

  • Joel Dahmen ($7,500) – We saw Dahmen play on the Outlaw Tour a few weeks back and earlier that week shot a sub 60 round when he was out playing with friends. This doesn’t mean a whole lot but at least he did play in some competition during the layoff. He was 20th here 2 years ago and was on fire early this year. Dahmen ranks 4th in fairways gained which is a stat I look more and more at when we approach this value range. 
  • Viktor Hovland ($7,900) – Ok, I have yet to get this guy right in 2020. He busted for me for weeks on end and then trolled me by winning the cross field event at the Puerto Rico Open. I’m not gonna let the recent results for me get in my way. I still want to play Hovland and I think he can pop at any time. 
  • Russell Knox ($7,200) – I haven’t talked to Chris much this week, but I have to assume this is one of his cash game staples. Maybe I’m wrong, but for $7,200 I think he will be popular due to his course history. This type of place fits his game and it has shown with 4 top 25s in 4 starts with an 8th place here last year. He ranks 8th in my overall model. I don’t mind Knox in GPPs either with this value.

Notables: Max Homa, Harris English, Tom Hoge

$6K RANGE

To get up to a guy like Rory I think you will have to dip down into this range, unless you just load up on $7k guys. This is where if you are multi entering, then mix and match. These are the most volatile golfers in the field and you don’t want to end up all in one one of them.

  • Bud Cauley ($6,800) – Cauley ranks 19th in my model this week and has played some decent golf in 2020. He ranks 7th on approach over his last 24 rounds. He hasn’t been great here, but does have a 21st and 14th here back in 2013 and 2014 respectively. He will be a guy I mix into my builds this week.
  • Matt Wallace ($6,600) – I expect that Matt is pretty low owned this week. He is kind of a gut play that I really like for GPPs. When his game is on he can compete with the best in the world, which he showed last summer. This will be his debut here and when the layoff happened he had been steadily improving. He’s not gonna pop in models, but again this is the type of guy I want to take a shot on in a week like this.The talent is way better than $6,600.

Notables: Harold Varner III, Matt NeSmith

Don’t be afraid to be different this week. This is a perfect week to play GPPs and take some shots on gut plays. I wish all of you the best of luck and hope to see you in the Slack chat this week and on our live show Wednesday night!

DAILY FANTASY GOLF – Dane’s Darts For The Rbc Heritage

DANE’S DARTS: RBC HERITAGE

What a fun first week it was back for the PGA Tour! It was so nice to have the Tour back and see those guys out there competing again. I had sorely missed a 4 day sweat. This week the tour shifts to Hilton Head, SC for the RBC Heritage. I think it is a very interesting week with how they have done pricing and the fact that I think ownership will be skewed by recency bias.

As always, be sure to check out the RotoPros LIVE golf show that Chris and I record each week on Wednesday nights. You can find the show on YouTube via the RotoPros channel. There we discuss the course and a general overview of our strategy for the week. If you subscribe to the RotoPros channel on YouTube you will be notified each time we go live!

My goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can gain an edge through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games. 

I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.

COURSE & KEY STATS

Harbour Town GL is a narrow course with small greens that, over the years has favored accuracy players. Even more pronounced than last week, I am favoring golfers who can play strategic off the tee over just complete bombers. I don’t think anyone can just go out and overpower this place. Again, with some of the top players in the world, I feel that they can adapt to any type of course so I mean this more for guys lower down the price tiers. 

Approach play is always important here and you want to see guys who are able to hit these small greens to give themselves birdie chances. I threw in a bit of around the green play into my model as well since players are sure to miss at least a few more greens than normal. 

Putting is something I don’t look at very often, but in a tournament like this I am factoring it in just a bit since guys will need to not only convert on birdie chances, but also save pars from around the green.

Here is a look at my complete list of key stats for the week:

Key Stats

  • SG: Ball Striking
  • SG: Approach 
  • Fairways Gained
  • DK Points
  • SG: Putting 
  • SG: ARG
  • Proximity
WEATHER

It doesn’t look like weather will be a major factor this week, but we do need to keep an eye on it going into Wednesday night. The early wave of golfers on Thursday and Friday look to have the better conditions so things should even out over the two days. 

Again, be sure to check out our live show on Wednesday night, where we will update this if necessary.

OVERALL STRATEGY

This is an awesome week to play the strategy game. I believe that guys will weigh last week’s form a bit too much and lead to some underowned plays for us to exploit in GPPs. I am not going to base all of my plays on last week’s form whether good or bad. Some guys may have just had a bad week and can get on a course they feel comfortable and crush this week. 

The next thing with strategy is really figuring out what you, and everyone else, is going to do with these underpriced “studs” in the $8K range. I will leave most of this conversation for when I get there, but DK really gave us something to think about this week. 

What I took from last week’s ownership numbers was that it was really spread out with how strong the field was. I think we could see that again this week, so for the most part I am planning to just play the guys I like and not let myself get swayed by ownership projections. 

This tournament is usually the week after the Masters, so as for course history, it is nice to see that a guy plays good here, but if he hasn’t I’m not going to write him off sense they are probably running on fumes when coming here in the past.

$9K + RANGE

I am going to combine these two ranges this week. There are only 4 golfers in the $9k range and DK really priced up the guys that played well. For a lot of these guys, it is either their debut at Harbour Town or they at least haven’t been here very often. 

  • Bryson DeChambeau ($10,700) – I guess theoretically he has turned himself into a bomber, but Bryson falls into the category of golfer that I think can adapt to anywhere he goes. He has 2 top 5s in 4 starts at Harbour Town, so he knows how to get around this place. The price is tough, but he is playing so well right now I don’t think I’ll be fading him.
  • Webb Simpson ($9,000) – One of the highest owned guys last week when he missed the cut. This course really fits Webb’s game and it has shown in the past. 16th, 5th and 11th here the last 3 years and has a runner-up finish here in 2013. Webb rates out number 1 in my model this week. I’ll be interested to see if people jump off a little bit after last week, but as of now it doesn’t look like they will.

Notables: Justin Rose

$8K RANGE

Here is the most important range of the week. It is absolutely stacked with talent, but some of the guys didn’t look the best last week. I’m more than happy to look at a longer body of work with all these guys and will be very excited to see projected ownership in this range tomorrow night. 

  • Gary Woodland ($8,400) – I haven’t completely decided what I am going to do here yet this week, but I will for sure be on Gary. He got a $400 price drop from last week and looked solid most of the tournament. He should have no trouble being patient and playing for position off the tee. He fits into tons of builds this week.
  • Rickie Fowler ($8,100) – At the time of writing Rickie looks to be the lowest owned of the studs who are priced down in this range. I’m perfectly fine going to him at sub 10% and the lowest price I’ve probably ever seen for him. He didn’t look great last week in a missed cut, but was -4 thru 16 in R2 before going bogey, double bogey to finish. 

Notables: Brooks Koepka, Tyrell Hatton

$7K RANGE

I am liking a lot of this range this week so feel free to mix and match in GPPs. There are a lot of matches to the course here and I think some of them will be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Just gotta find out who.

  • Joel Dahmen ($7,500) – Joel picked up right where he left off at the break. He had a very solid week last week gaining 5 strokes on approach en route to a 19th place finish. The best thing about it? He didn’t get a price bump and now returns to a course that he finished 16th on debut a year ago. He ranks 4th in my overall model this week.
  • Kevin Kisner ($7,700) – He may get a little popular this week, but I’m not super worried about it. He played a solid 4 rounds at Colonial breaking par in all 4. I like Kisner as a fit for Harbour Town and his past results show just that. 2nd here in 2015, he also added an 11th and 7th in 2017 and 2018 respectively. 
  • Brian Harman ($7,200) – Harman looked decent last week with a 23rd place finish. He will need to improve off the tee but the rest of his game looked really good, gaining nearly 4 strokes on approach. I like his history on Pete Dye designs, like this week and his history here includes 2 top 10s. 

Notables: Shane Lowry, Harris English, Joaquin Niemann

$6K RANGE

I think we have a few options down here, but I don’t see myself having massive amounts of exposure down here with the underpriced guys in the $8k and $9k range. 

  • Matthew NeSmith ($6,600) – NeSmith was a guy who we were riding early this season. Last week, he made the cut finishing 49th. He did gain strokes on approach and on the greens. NeSmith is from South Carolina and went to college at South Carolina. Oh… and he proposed to his now wife right here at Harbour Town. Talk about ties to the area.

Notables: Doc Redman

Don’t be afraid to be different this week. This is a perfect week to play GPPs and take some shots on guys that may have not played great last week. Trust your gut. I wish all of you the best of luck and hope to see you in the Slack chat this week and on our live show Wednesday night!