DFS MLB Top Pitchers & Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel – Thursday, April 22

Welcome back baseball fans. We have another full day of baseball but in this article, I will be covering the five-game main slate & looking at my top pitchers and teams to stack.

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Pitchers

Walker Buehler vs. SDP
By default, Buehler is the top option on the slate and I am not thrilled to pay over $10K for him against one of the best lineups in baseball. The biggest issue for Buehler has been the fastball which he throws 65% of the time. It is down about a mile per hour on average and only generating a 4% swinging-strike rate. The good news if digging deep is that the Padres rank 21st against fastballs this season.

The other good news here is that despite the lack of swing and misses, he has gone six innings in all three starts, has only walked one batter, and allowed just four earned runs. I am not sure I will be playing cash games as the risk here is quite high but this is most likely where the chalk is going to fall.

Alex Cobb @ HOU
For value, I will be turning to Alex Cobb who has been a pleasant surprise in his first season for the Angels. Sure, the 4.63 ERA after allowing three earned runs in both starts doesn’t look great but hear me out.

During those two starts, opponents have a .393 BABIP which is very unsustainable and that is backed up by an xFIP(1.67) that is three full runs lower than that ugly ERA. On top of that, he has seen an insane jump in K rate(35%) which is backed up by a 19% swinging-strike rate. Digging even deep we see the difference could be coming from dialing back the fastball usage(33%) by over 10% and throwing more changeups(45%) and curveballs(21%) which have been very effective.

I also like the matchup here as the Astros have really struggled lately losing nine of their last 10 games, scoring just 2.7 runs per game for a 73 wRC+. You can do much worse on this slate……I think.

Top Team to Stack

*Reminder it is very important to sequence as much as possible to have the most correlation possible in your lineup*

Boston Red Sox vs. Justin Dunn(SEA)
The Red Sox are going to be the chalk tonight sitting at the top of the implied run rankings but over a half run(as I write this). It makes sense as they went into Wednesday night leading the majors with 100 runs scored overall and also lead all teams in hitting against righties with a .364 wOBA and 135 wRC+.

They now face Justin Dunn who has had big control issues(10 walks in 9.2 IP) ut has yet to be punished as he enters tonight with a respectable 3.72 ERA. Well, I feel that run is coming to an end very soon and hopefully tonight as Dunn is running a very unsustainable .095 BABIP to go with an ugly 6.79 xFIP that is three runs higher than the ERA.

Everything points to the Red Sox hitting their implied run total and likely pushing for the Over, as well.

Projected Lineup

Based on this projected lineup, I have two stacks I like. It will be a mix of 1-2-3-4 and 2-3-4-5.

Hockey Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel – April 17

Hello hockey fans, we have a six-game main slate today and I am here to share with you my favorite goalies, team stacks and value plays. 

 

Goalies

Petr Mrazek

The Canes are a Stanley Cup contender this season and they have their starting goalie back and healthy. Mrazek is 3-0-1 since coming back and he has allowed only seven goals and has earned a shutout during that span. The Preds are ranked 26th in offense so all things considered, Mrazek is an elite play in all formats. 

Anton Khudobin

The Jackets are projected to score only 1.9 goals this evening and Khudobin is 3-0-2 in his last five while allowing only eight goals. The Stars should win this game fairly easily today so lock and load Khudobin in all formats. 

Teams to Target 

Carolina Hurricanes

The Canes own the 10th-ranked offense and the Preds own the 15th-ranked defense but where things really stand out, is Carolina’s #1-ranked PP vs.Nashville’s #27-ranked PK. 

Vincent Trocheck has been awesome this year as he has 19 goals and 17 assists in only 33 games. Dougie Hamilton has six goals, 28 assists and averages 3.3 shots per game, which is best amongst defensemen and Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Jordan Staal complete the top PP unit. 

 

Dallas Stars

The Stars are ranked 18th in offense but they have moved up a lot of spots over the last couple of months and the Jackets are ranked 27th in defense and they are simply not good. 

The top line has been one of the best lines in hockey recently and rookie Jason Robertson has four goals and two assists in his last five games. Joe Pavelski has 39 points in 42 games and Roope Hintz completes the potent top line.

One-off Value Plays

 

Mats Zuccarello

The Norwegian winger has been blazing hot in his last two games as he has three goals and five shots and two of those goals were on the PP. The Sharks have a bad defense so fire up the veteran winger in all formats as a cheap value play. 

Neal Pionk

Some people were grumbling about the Jets not picking up a top-four point-man at the trade deadline but I’m hearing that they like what they have in stock already. Pionk has three assists, three shots, and three blocks in his last two games while averaging 22 minutes of ice-time. Lock him and load him in all formats. 

Daily Fantasy Golf – Dane’s Darts for the RBC Heritage

Each week Dane brings you his preview article and in addition, we also have a DFS PGA cheatsheet where both Dane and Chris rank their top plays in each price range. To get access to this sheet and our Slack chat, grab a FREE trial and use promo code “RP50” and get 50% off your first payment. With that, let’s jump into the article.

Dane’s Darts for the RBC Heritage

Coming off a big week at the Masters, the tour heads to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage. This tournament was later in the year in 2020 due to being the second event back after the layoff, but now returns to its normal slot on the schedule the week after the Masters. We have a pretty strong field and I am looking forward to a fun event this week.

As mentioned, my goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can be different through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games.  

I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.

Overall Strategy

Harbour Town GL is a narrow course with small greens that, over the years has favored accuracy players. I am favoring golfers who can play strategic off the tee over just complete bombers. I don’t think anyone can just go out and overpower this place. Again, with some of the top players in the world, I feel that they can adapt to any type of course so I mean this more for guys lower down the price tiers. 

Approach play is always important here and you want to see guys who are able to hit these small greens to give themselves birdie chances. I threw in a bit of around the green play into my model as well since players are sure to miss at least a few more greens than normal. 

Putting is something I don’t look at very often, but in a tournament like this I am factoring it in just a bit since guys will need to not only convert on birdie chances, but also save pars from around the green.

Here is a look at my complete list of key stats for the week:

Key Stats

  • SG: Ball Striking
  • SG: Approach 
  • Fairways Gained
  • DK Points
  • SG: Putting 
  • SG: ARG
  • Proximity

This is an interesting week for strategy coming off a major. Some guys who were in the thick of things last week could certainly be in for a let down this week. It is something I am evaluating on a player by player basis this week. Once you get off the top of the pricing it is important to know what kind of player does well here as mentioned above.

$9K + Range

  • Daniel Berger ($10,000) – Berger missed the cut last week so he should come in a bit rested and not mentally exhausted. The event following his last two missed cuts resulted in a 2nd and a win so I am not worried about this MC at all. To go along with that Berger was 3rd here a year ago coming off his win coming off the layoff. Sign me up for some Berger this week.

Notables: Collin Morikawa

$7K and $8K Range

  • Abraham Ancer ($8,900) – Ancer fits this course to a tee and was runner up here a year ago after making a strong run at the top. Chris mentioned his strong Pete Dye form in chat earlier and I expect another good week from him here as he comes in with some good current form. 
  • Sergio Garcia ($8,600) – I am willing to give Sergio a pass for last week and go right back to him here. He has struggled at Augusta since his win and had some very strong form before last week. He was 5th here a year ago on the back of some strong ball striking and I could see him replicating that here. 
  • Si Woo Kim ($7,900) – If anyone I’m on this week worries me in regards to being mentally drained from last week it’s Si Woo. He was in the thick of things until the end of Saturday and had a very strong showing. His price is right though and he returns to the spot of a near win here in 2018. He is another Pete Dye specialist and should provide us some strong value this week.

Notables: Shane Lowry, Kevin Kisner, Robert MacIntyre

$6K Range

  • Matthew NeSmith ($6,900) – NeSmith is from South Carolina and went to college at South Carolina. Oh… and he proposed to his now wife right here at Harbour Town. Talk about ties to the area. He was a guy we were on here last year and he had three very strong rounds, but was hindered a bit by a poor Saturday in contention. I will go right back to him here as he comes in with some more solid form in 2021.

Notables: Doc Redman, Chase Seiffert

If you guys have any questions please let me know in the Slack! Remember to always trust your gut and play the plays that your research leads you to!

Daily Fantasy Hockey Plays for DraftKings & FanDuel – Tuesday, April 13

Hello hockey fans, we have a six-game main slate today and I am here to share with you my favorite goalies, team stacks and value plays. 

Goalies

Tuukka Rask

First of all, I will play any Bruins goalie tonight against the lowly Sabres and their 29th-ranked offense but it sounds like Rask is ready to go again after a ten-game absence with a back issue. The veteran tender has a solid 2.40 GAA and a half-decent .907 save % in 14 starts and the Bruins are massive -310 favourites this evening so lock and load the Bruins goalie in all formats.

Igor Shesterkin

While it will be hard to get away from the Bruins’ goalie in cash games, the Rangers goalie is a solid choice for GPP formats against the Devils who just traded a couple of their better players. Shesterkin has a respectable 2.30 GAA and a solid .920 save % and the Devils are ranked 26th in offense so all things considered, he is a great play in GPP formats. 

Teams to Target 

Washington Capitals

The Caps scored eight goals against the Bruins last game and are ranked third in offense while the Flyers are ranked 30th in defense. This could get ugly quickly. 

Of course, it all starts with superstar Alex Ovechkin’s two goals, an assist, and a whopping 19 shots in his last three games. Tom Wilson had a goal and an assist last game and Evgeny Kuznetsov completes the top line for the Caps.

New York Rangers

The Rangers are ranked sixth in offense while the Devils are ranked 25th in defense and we’ve all seen what these guys can do in matchups against weak opponents.

Artemi Panarin has 42 points in only 30 games and Adam Fox has 37 points in 40 games which is great for a d-man. Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome and Pavel Buchnevich complete the top PP unit for the Rangers. 

One-off Value Plays

Alex Galchenyuk 

The Leafs moved the much-traveled winger up to the top line with Marner and Matthews last night and he only got one shot but what an opportunity. The Habs played the Leafs tough but look for them to rebound tonight and Galchenyuk is way too cheap on both sites for this amazing opportunity. At least he can keep up with them. 

Jack Ahcan

I know what you’re asking. Who is this guy? I don’t really know myself but he’s set up to play on the top PP unit this evening because of all of the injuries on the blue-line for the Bruins. Ahcan is priced at the bare minimum on each site so I will be taking a chance on him in all formats. 

Daily Fantasy Golf – Dane’s Darts for The Masters

Each week Dane brings you his preview article and in addition, we also have a DFS PGA cheatsheet where both Dane and Chris rank their top plays in each price range. To get access to this sheet and our Slack chat, grab a FREE trial and use promo code “RP50” and get 50% off your first payment. With that, let’s jump into the article.

Dane’s Darts for The Masters

The time has come. The Masters returns after only five months and I couldn’t be more excited. I am glad it has returned to April for 2021 and we are in store for an awesome week. There are so many storylines, as always, and I am ready to break down my thoughts on the week below.

As mentioned, my goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can be different through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games.  

I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.

Overall Strategy

Everyone knows Augusta National well. It is a very sloped course with room off the tee, but tough approaches to these greens. Once you are on the greens, you are not yet done dealing with undulation as you will see super fast greens with some massive slopes that players will have to be careful with. The key is obviously placing approaches or pitches below the hole so you can be aggressive with your putts. 

Over the years we have seen that driving can be a weapon at Augusta National. The longer you hit it, the shorter clubs you will be hitting into the greens which should lend itself to more control. Distance is not an end all be all, but it should help players that have it. We may see some rain throughout the week, which would also increase the importance of distance. Overall, I am still looking for golfers with an all around game, preferably ones who have solid incoming form.

This week we have a top 50 and ties cut. The only change to this as opposed to previous years is the fact that there used to be a rule that the cut also included anyone who was within 10 shots of the lead. This will make it a bit tougher to make the cut but still a pretty large portion of the playable guys will make the cut.

The top range of this field is super strong this week and you can still make some nice lineups jamming in two of them.

Key Stats

  • SG: Ball Striking
  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Around the green
  • Opportunities gained
  • SG: Putting

$10K + Range

  • Justin Thomas ($10,700) – The Players champion looks to be in fine form and I expect him to contend for his 2nd major and first Masters this week. He has improved here through the years and is primed to breakthrough.

Notables: Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlory

$8K and $9K Range

  • Jordan Spieth (9,400) – He is 100% back in my eyes and I think he is on a mission for this week. Winning last week doesn’t worry me a bit and I will go right to him at a place he loves. He is underpriced in relation to his odds now and I expect him to be popular, but I will be different elsewhere. 
  • Brooks Koepka ($9,200) – An improbable return for Brooks here at Augusta. I expect him to be low owned and when he is out to prove something I am willing to take a chance on him. He is an ultimate competitor and he knows how to show up in majors. The key to his week will be how that right knee holds up. 

Notables: Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay

$7K Range

  • Paul Casey ($7,700) – Casey is another guy who will be popular, but is severely underpriced in relation to his odds. He is playing some great golf right now and has some solid history here at Augusta. His tee to green numbers have been off the charts and I will continue to ride that hot form. 
  • Sergio Garcia ($7,900) – This is another guy who has got his iron play to a super elite level once again and is a previous Masters champion. At sub $8k I will take advantage of his price and have a healthy amount of Sergio this week.

Notables: Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen, Joachin Niemann

$6K Range

  • Si Woo Kim ($6,700) – Si Woo has had three straight respectable finishes here at Augusta and comes in with some solid form again. The price allows you to do a lot with the rest of your lineup and has top 10 upside in my eyes.  
  • Matt Kuchar ($6,800) – What a turnaround of form for Kuch in these past couple weeks. He has some strong history here at Augusta with some top 5s and for this price I am willing to see if this hot run will continue.

Notables: Corey Conners

If you guys have any questions please let me know in the Slack! Remember to always trust your gut and play the plays that your research leads you to!

Daily Fantasy Hockey Plays for DraftKings & FanDuel – Tuesday, April 6

Hello hockey fans, we have a nine-game main slate today and I am here to share with you my favorite goalies, team stacks and value plays. 

Goalies

Juuse Saros

The Preds have been playing better lately and it starts with Saros, who is coming off of a 41 save shutout and has won five of his last six starts. The Wings were one of those teams he blanked and they own the league’s 29th-ranked offense so fire up Saros in all formats with confidence. 

Martin Jones

The Sharks have also been playing better recently and Jones has won four in a row while allowing only seven goals and earning a shutout during that span. The Ducks are ranked 30th in offense so it should be a fairly easy win for the veteran tender this evening. Fire up Jones in all formats. 

Teams to Target 

Boston Bruins

The Bruins scored only two goals against the Flyers and their second-worst defense last night so look for revenge this evening as they get to fire pucks at Carter Hart who has been downright awful this season. 

Patrice Bergeron has heated up recently as he has two goals, two assists, and 20 shots in his last four games. Brad Marchand has also been hot lately with four goals and two assists in his last four. David Pastrnak, Nick Ritchie, and Mark Grzelcyk complete the top PP unit. 

New York Rangers

The Penguins own a top 15 defense but they just allowed seven goals to the Bruins and the Rangers have been scoring goals from every direction lately. 

The bread man Artemi Panarin has three goals, four assists, and eleven shots in his last three games and Adam Fox is on an incredible 10-game point streak. Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome, and Pavel Buchnevich complete the top PP unit. 

One-off Value Plays

Rudolfs Balcers

I love this guy’s name and he’s way too

cheap considering that he plays on the #2 line and the #2 PP unit for the Sharks. Rudolfs has two goals, two assists, and seven shots in his last three games so lock him and load him in all formats and spend up elsewhere. 

MacKenzie Weegar

The young point-man has a goal, three assists, four shots, and five blocks in his last two games and he is averaging 22 minutes of ice-time per game. His role has increased with Aaron Ekblad out of the lineup so fire him up in all formats. 

Daily Fantasy Baseball Pitching Targets for DraftKings & FanDuel – Opening Day

Baseball is back and I couldn’t be more excited. Opening day is always one of the best days of the year to watch baseball as every team has a clean slate with their ace on the mound. This year we get all 30 teams playing and the action start at 1:05 pm ET and in this article, I am going to provide a few pitchers I am targeting for my DraftKings builds.

Want more? Make sure to grab a FREE trial to our premium service where you will get access to the DFS MLB cheatsheet with extensive research information and our Slack chat with one on one coaching, and up-to-the-minute injury news and analysis.

Starting Pitcher Targets

 

Shane Bieber

On a slate full of aces, Bieber comes in 5th in salary on DK as a -200 favorite on Opening Day and is my favorite option in all formats. He was tremendous in the shortened 2020 season winning the AL Cy Young on the back of a sparkling 1.63 ERA backed up by a 2.04 xFIP and eye-popping 41% K rate.
He also gets the pleasure of opening the season against the Tigers who finished bottom five in almost every hitting category including a low .285 wOBA, 76 wRC+, and 28% K rate vs. right-handed pitching. This may be the lowest we see his price on DK all season so load up on the savings.

Tyler Glasnow

At first glance, the 4.08 ERA he posted last year looks concerning but digging deeper, there is zero reasons to worry about him coming into 2021. The main reason is that the xFIP(2.75) was well over a run better than the ERA and he also provides a ton of upside with a 38% K rate. The issue last year was mainly the long ball as he gave up a 23.4% HR/FB rate which is over 6% worse than his career average.
I look for Glasnow to get on track early in 2021 and it starts with a plus matchup vs. the Marlins who finished in the bottom 10 offensively last year with not a whole lot of light at the end of the tunnel this year.
Glasnow is in play in all formats on DraftKings under $9k and at his price on FanDuel, makes an excellent low-owned pivot off the other 10K+ pitchers.

Kyle Hendricks

I am very likely going to be paying up for two pitchers in cash games on this slate but for GPP, if trying to load up on bats, I do like Hendricks. He isn’t going to blow away the competition with velo but was very efficient last year posting a 2.88 ERA and 3.78 xFIP while averaging over 6.5 innings per start.

Like Bieber, he also gets a terrific Opening Day matchup against the Pirates who finished dead last with a .279 wOBA and 79 wRC+ last season. Coming into 2021, they unloaded some bats and are in full rebuild mode. Let’s take advantage of this price and matchup today.