This week the PGA Tour returns to the USA with a trip to TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada. The field isn’t elite but it isn’t terrible either as two of the Top 10(DeChambeau, Fowler) along with four more of the Top 25(Spieth, Finau, Simpson, Cantlay) players in the Official World Golf Ranking will be teeing it up this week. Outside of last season where the wind howled and the winning score was -9, the average winning score has been around -20. With the calm weather forecast this week(see below) we can likely expect more of the same.
Course Breakdown and Top Stats
TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 setup just over 7,200 yards and with just three Par 5’s it has 11 Par 4’s and four Par 3’s. The biggest thing to note is that seven of the Par 4 holes fall between 400 and 450 yards which will leave players with a lot of mid iron approach shots this week. The greens are larger than average on the PGA Tour so the Greens in Regulation percentage will be high putting emphasis on Proximity to the Hole when breaking down Strokes Gained: Approach. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is also a part of the model as hitting the fairways is on the tougher side of things compared to Tour average and it gives us both stats in the Strokes Gained: Ball Striking metric. Par 4 Scoring is also at the top of my list this week as an average of 54% of all birdies over the last four years have come on these holes. Finally, with a final score that should fall in the -20 zone this week Birdie or Better % will be key.
Now let’s jump into the picks in each price tier and remember to grab a copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet where I list all of my top targets for cash games and GPP’s. The sheet also includes course history, current form, and advanced stats and puts it all together in a rankings model.
Top Tier Targets
Gary Woodland(DK - $9,700 FD - $11,600)
I will be once again going a more balanced approach in cash games and it starts with Gary Woodland who is seventh in salary on both sites. He finished T18 here last year in his first trip to TPC Summerlin and comes into this years event with tremendous form as he finished the playoffs with a T12 and T11 at the BMW and Tour Championship. That carried over into the fall season as he has a T5 at the CIMB Classic and runner-up at the CJ Cup. He is also 2nd in my stats model this week ranking 7th in SG: Ball Striking, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, and 2nd in Birdie or Better %. He checks all the boxes and is #1 in my overall model and I will have exposure in all formats.
Rickie Fowler(DK - $11,400 FD - $12,200)
Looking at the data from FanShareSports, it appears that Webb Simpson, Gary Woodland, and Tony Finau will be the highest owned golfers in the top tier. Not that Rickie Fowler will be low owned but usually going up to the most expensive golfer each week will get you an ownership discount. After dealing with an abdominal injury that forced him to miss the first two playoff events, he returned to close out the playoffs strong with a T8 at the BMW Championship and T7 at the Tour Championship shooting a 65 in five of his final eight round of the season. He has only played here twice(T25 in 2015 & T7 in 2009) but he has the game to make a run here. Looking at the last 24 rounds data(via Fantasy National Golf Club), he ranks 8th in SG: Approach, 4th in Birdie or Better Gained, and 5th in DraftKings scoring. Fire up Rickie in GPP formats this week.
Mid Tier Targets
Scott Piercy(DK - $8,100 FD - $9,400)
For my cash pick in the mid-range of pricing I will turn to course history. Scott Piercy returns to TPC Summerlin with four straight finishes of 32nd or better including at a Top 10 and throughout his career has made nine of 11 cuts here with three Top 10 finishes. His recent form has also been trending in the right direction as he has bounced back in a big way after missing the cut at the season-opening Safeway Open with a T27 at the CIMB Classic and T5 at the CJ Cup. Overall, the stats don’t really stand out(3oth in stats model on sheet) but he does rank 7th in Driving Accuracy, 16th in Good Drive %, 16th in GIR, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, and 27th in Birdie or Better %. With his price this week, he fits the balanced approach lineup construction model very easily and is one of my top mid-range picks.
Si Woo Kim(DK - $7,500 FD - $9,900)
This pick stands out for a couple reasons when looking at GPP plays. First of all, when looking at FanShareSports tag counts he is getting zero love whatsoever with no tags as of Wednesday morning. I don’t quite get it seeing as he is coming off a T10 at the CIMB Classic and T23 at the CJ Cup. While he did make nine bogey’s in each of those tournaments, he showed his scoring touch with a combined 46 birdies and two eagles. He also has a Top 25 here at TPC Summerlin back in 2015 and this week when looking at the odds is 21st overall when looking at Top 20 finish bets. At his price on DraftKings and ability to make birdies I am fully on board using him in GP formats this week.
Ryan Blaum(DK - $7,200 FD - $9,100)
Blaum is a player that hits in almost every single are this week and comes in at #21 in my overall rankings. He is coming off a rookie season where he missed 11 cuts in 25 stroke-play events but did record two Top 10’s and eight Top 25 finishes. He has also started off the 2018-19 season consistent with a T33 at the Safeway Open and T20 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and while he does tend to make some bogeys, he does rank 12th so far in Birdie Average per round and is 5th in Birdie or Better %. The decision is much tougher on FanDuel where he is $9,100 but on DraftKings if you are going stars and scrubs, he is in play in all formats.
Also Consider: Adam Schenk, Nick Taylor
Thanks for checking out the article and if you have any questions about the cheatsheet, players I listed, or anything DFS PGA related at all please reach out in the RotoPros Slack Chat or on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Not a RotoPros member yet? Be sure to get over and SIGN UP for your FREE two-week trial. You won’t be disappointed.