NFL Against the Spread Picks Week 10

We got a nice Week 10 slate of games. There are a handful of games today I love. Let’s get started

Also my number one piece of advice is DON’T RISK MONEY YOU DON’T HAVE!

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Let’s get started (****all spread are as of this writing****)

Saints (-5.5) over Bengals

My general rule of thumb when betting on Bengals games is checking the day, time and location of the game. Let me explain, Andy Dalton is ALWAYS at his best when he’s at home, playing in the 1pm time slot when no one is watching. However, AJ Green is not playing this game. The Saints only have one competent corner, Lattimore, and he will be covering Boyd. The lack of other weapons at Daltons disposal will be tough for him to overcome especially since he will be throwing all day with the Saints expected to put up points.

The Saints have established themselves as one of, if not, the best team in the league. The Bengals don’t provide a great edge rush and get most of their pressure up the middle from stud Geno Atkins. The Saints pass protection, however, is excellent up the middle. With time I'm looking for Brees to dominate a pretty bad secondary.

Falcons (-5.5) over Browns

Atlanta is on a three game winning streak, even dismantling Washington on the road in terrible conditions. Even Julio got a touchdown! The Browns are a mess having fired their Hue Jackson and Todd Haley. This is not a situation where a team rises and plays for Greg Williams. I expect the Falcons to roll and make a playoff push.

Patriots (-6.5) over Titans

New England is rolling on both sides of the ball. Bellichick, having lost to a former assistant earlier in the year, won’t lose to Mike Vrabel. The Titans cannot score having averaged 16.8 points per game this season. Brady will do Brady things and put up points. The defense will play well and Pats win easily.

Upset special: Bills (+7.5) over Jets

Josh McCown will be starting over the injured rookie Sam Darnold this week. He is a slight upgrade considering Darnold’s struggles but they are going to have trouble scoring. Despite all the Bills troubles this year the Bills defense is for real and can dominate a game, especially against a bad offense. They played really well against the Pats, Vikings and Bears (yes, the Bears scored 41 points, but that was all the Bears defense either scoring or putting their offense in great field position). The Bills defense alone will keep it under a one score game.

This will be a real snooze fest and even with a very low over/under of 36.5, the under is in play.