This week the PGA Tour heads south to Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic. The field includes 10 of the world’s Top 50 golfers led by Rickie Fowler(#9), Jordan Spieth(#14), and Tony Finau(315). This is another full field event with a cut of Top 70 and ties after the second round on Friday. While it’s no crucial to get 6/6 through the cut to cash, it will definitely help as the average winning score here over the last five years is -19.
The host course since the event started back in 2007 is the El Camaleon Golf Course which is a Par 71 which is on the shorter side of average at 6,987 yards. With the course situated on the coast adjacent to Playa Del Carmen wind can can definitely play a factor in scoring so let’s check out the weather forecast below and be sure to click the link below to get an updated forecast before finalizing your lineups.
Course Breakdown and Top Stats
Par 5 Scoring
As you can see from looking at the course image above, par 5 scoring is very important and about 34% of all birdies have come on these three holes. Also, the Par 5, 5th hole and the Par 5, 13th hole have both produced double digit eagles in four of the last five years as well.
Par 4 Scoring from 450 to 500 Yards
Five of the 11 Par 4’s fall in this distance and with these holes easily the hardest on the course, I will be looking for players who excel in this area which will separate them from the field.
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Looking at some of the player quotes(via Future of Fantasy) from years past, hitting the fairways is very important with the native areas that are present. After that, if golfers are going to get to the -18 or better score to take down the tournament they are going to have to hit a ton of greens. As always, I will be weighing Strokes Gained: Approach ahead of Off the Tee.
Birdie or Better %
With low scores projected once again this year given the forecast above, I will be weighing Birdie or Better % very high as it correlates closely with fantasy scoring.
Now let’s jump into the picks in each price tier and remember to grab a copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet where I list all of my top targets for cash games and GPP’s. The sheet also includes course history, current form, and advanced stats and puts it all together in a rankings model.
Top Tier Targets
Emiliano Grillo(DK - $9,700 FD - $11,500)
I won’t be starting any of my cash lineups in the $10K+ range on DraftKings this week and instead will be going a more balanced approach and it starts with Grillo. He opened the 2018-19 season with a T41 at the Safeway Open, followed it up with a T2 at the CIMB Classic, stumbled at the CJ Cup(T55) but then rebounded at the WGC HSBC Champions with a T14 in a loaded field. He now returns to the Mayakoba Golf Classic where he has had a ton of success with back to back Top 10 finishes. He also stands out in my stats model as he ranks 6th in SG: ball Striking(37th OTT, 3rd APP, 10th Driv Acc) and looking at my mixed condition model(via FNGC), he ranks 8th overall with a 14th rank in Birdie or Better Gained and 8th in Par 5 Scoring over the last 24 rounds. He will be a core player in my cash lineups and also has upside for GPP formats.
Rickie Fowler(DK - $11,500 FD - $12,500)
I am going right back to Rickie Fowler again this week after a strong performance last week where he finished T4 with the fourth most fantasy points in the field. He did so with two eagles, 21 birdies and finished T11 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on the week. Going back to the BMW Championship in the playoffs, it is his third straight finish of 8th or better suggesting the injury is ancient history. He now returns to Mexico after coming so close to winning last year but ended up 2nd behind Patton Kizzire. He is first in my overall model on my sheet and 2nd in my mixed condition model which is looking at performance in key areas over the last 24 rounds. I don’t think we need to pay this far up in cash games but Rickie will once again be a core player in my GPP lineup construction.
Mid Tier Targets
Scott Piercy(DK - $8,000 FD - $9,700)
Piercy is another player who I wrote about last week that didn’t let us down. Since missing the cut at the Safeway Open to start the year Piercy has been on a heater with a T27 at the CIMB Classic, T5 at the CJ Cup, and a T10 last week at the Shriners Open. He now returns to the Mayakoba Golf Classic where he has experienced success in the past with a T16 and T4 in his last two trips. Finally, he fits the stats model in a couple key areas ranking 7th in Driving Accuracy, 10th in Greens in Regulation, and 13th in Proximity. That is a recipe for success here and puts Piercy in the conversation as a top play in all formats in the mid-range of pricing.
Sam Ryder(DK - $8,700 FD - $9,600)
After a rookie season where he tallied just three Top 10’s in 26 events, Sam Ryder has started the 2018-19 on fire and already has two Top 5 finishes(Safeway Open-T4, Shriners Open-3rd) in three events. Last week was even more impressive as he closed out the tournament with a career-low 62. He missed the cut here at El Camaleon last year(T79) by one stroke but has the game to get it done this year and has winning upside. On my sheet, he ranks 4th in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Ball Striking, 9th in Proximity, 15th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 5 scoring, and 11th in birdie or better %. Fire up Ryder in GPP formats this week and you can even consider him in cash games.
Danny Lee(DK - $6,900 FD - $9,100)
On FanDuel, his price is a little too high for me to consider for cash games but on DraftKings under $7K he makes a ton of sense in all formats as he checks almost all the boxes. After closing out the 2017-18 season with five straight made cuts including a Top 10 at the RBC Canadian Open, Lee has started the new season just as consistent with a T10 at the Safeway Open, T33 at the CIMB Classic, and T41 at the Shriners Open. He also hits on course history and although he withdrew in 2016 he finished T3 in 2014 and T25 last year. Finally, looking at the last 24 rounds stats data(via Fantasy National), Lee ranks 13th in SG: Total, 20th in SG: Ball Striking(17 OTT, 36th APP), 23rd in SG: Putting, 16th in Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards, and 8th in fantasy scoring.
Also Consider: Martin Laird
Thanks for checking out the article and if you have any questions about the cheatsheet, players I listed, or anything DFS PGA related at all please reach out in the RotoPros Slack Chat or on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Not a RotoPros member yet? Be sure to get over and SIGN UP for your FREE two-week trial. You won’t be disappointed.