What I learned From Week 13 in the NFL

Another week is in the books and that means it’s time to go over a couple things that stood out and how we can use that analysis moving forward.

Lamar Jackson should Continue to Start for the Ravens

After dropping three straight games with Joe Flacco under center, the Ravens were forced to turn to Lamar Jackson at quarterback with an injury to Flacco. Since then, Jackson has led the Ravens to three straight wins and now sit just a half game back of the Steelers in the AFC North. It hasn’t been his arm that has stood out(39/65 for 453 yards & one touchdown) but rather his legs and elite rushing ability. In those three games, he has rushed it 54 times for 319 yards and two touchdowns. With a read-option style offense, he has also helped Gus Edwards thrive in the offense and the biggest factor has been the time of possession. The Ravens controlled the ball 39:39 to 20:21 vs. Atlanta, 34:12 to 25:48 vs. Oakland, and 38:09 to 21:51 vs. Cincinnati. They now go into a hostile environment in Kansas City to face the high-flying Chiefs and MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes. No team has been able to stop Mahomes this season and the Ravens best chance to do this on Sunday is to keep him on the sidelines and again control the clock. I believe the passing will only improve each game and if he starts once again, he should be considered a high floor cash game play seeing as his price dropped $200 on DraftKings and stayed the same on FanDuel for Week 14.

Lamar Miller Continues to Put Up RB1 Numbers at a Big Discount

Miller has been one of the best running back PTS/$ values in fantasy football lately thanks to a price tag that never seems to leave the mid range on either site. Despite somewhat of a timeshare with Alfred Blue, Miller has rushed for 100 or more yards four times in his last six games while averaging 17.5 DraftKings/14.8 FanDuel points per game(14.1 DK/12.1 FD average on the season). In those six games, he has rushed it over 20 times in a game just twice but the most impressive part is that he is averaging 5.9 yards per carry in that time. The Texans have now won nine straight games and have a three-game lead in the AFC South and there is a good chance they will be favorites in each of their four remaining games leading to a positive game script for Miller and the running game. It starts in week 14 as the Texans are 4.5 point home favorites against the Colts while Miller is 20th in DraftKings and 17th in FanDuel pricing and as long as that remains, he will be a great PTS/$ play each week.

If DeSean Jackson is out again, Fire up Chris Godwin as a Top Value Play

With Jackson out with a thumb injury in Week 13 it was Chris Godwin, not Mike Evans, who stepped up and performed for the Bucs in an upset win over the Carolina Panthers. Both had six targets but Godwin caught five of his for his 101 yards(20.2 yards per reception) and his second 100+ yard game in four weeks. Looking back through the game logs there is definitely a trend here as DJax missed the final two games in 2017 and Godwin stepped up then as well with 98 and 111 yards in those games. If Jackson is out once again in Week 14, fire up Godwin at a value price in a plus matchup against the Saints who have given up the third-most passing yards per game(279.3) and the most fantasy points per game to wideouts.

The Patriots are Back to Full Health at the Running Back Position and Killing us for Fantasy

Rex Burkhead returned to the lineup in Week 13 which led to a three-jheaded attack in the backfield. While Sony Michel led the way with 17 carries for 63 yards, James White got nine targets in the passing game while Burkhead got nine touches himself. The biggest pain int eh rear end for anyone who rostered a Pats running back was that fullback James Develin got four carries and ran two in for scores on the goaline. Moving forward, it is sub optimal to roster any of these guys in cash games and is even tough to do in GPP formats. Thank Belichek!

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