The PGA Tour FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the Top 100 players in the standings moving on to the Dell Technologies Championship. This week, however, the field will be just 98 players with Rickie Fowler and Francesco Molinari sitting out.
TPC Boston in Norton, MA is the host course this week and has been since the beginning of the FedEx Cup Playoffs back in 2007. It is a longer Par 72 setup that stretches out to 7,342 yards and has tree-lined fairways that are slightly easier than average to hit(via Future of Fantasy Golfanac). The greens here are Bentgrass and are smaller than average and run very fast relative to Tour average. Three of the Par 3's come in over 200 yards and with five of the Par 4's over 450 yards, there are going to be a lot of approaches coming in the 175-200 and 200+ range so long iron Proximity will be something I am weighing when looking at Strokes Gained: Approach. The average winning score over the last five years is right around -17 so it will likely be somewhat of a birdie fest this week so I will definitely be weighing Birdie or Better % very high this week along with some Par 5 Scoring.
With that, let's get into the picks and don't forget to grab a copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet where I list even more of my top targets along with advanced stats.
Top Tier Targets
Dustin Johnson(DK - $11,600 FD - $12,500)
The first thing I notice here for the world #1 is that he is getting almost no love. Looking at the tag count and sentiment rating over at FanShareSports, he has the second-lowest tags(16) and start calls(6) of any golfer in the top tier. I guess it likely has to do with the two triple-bogeys last week but despite that, he finished T11 overall and T2 when looking at the birdie count. He is #2 in my overall model and has been better here at TPC Boston as of late wit ha T8 and T18 in the last two years. He should be able to use his distance to his advantage this week and looking at my sheet, he ranks 1st in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Ball Striking, Proximity, Par 3, 4, and 5 scoring, and Birdie or Better %. If the projected ownership holds up I will be going even heavier on DJ this week than originally planned.
Patrick Cantlay(DK - $9,000 FD - $11,000)
With a smaller field this week, balanced is likely the preferred way to go and right at the top of my list for that strategy is Patrick Cantlay. He is #1 in my overall model and it starts with his form as he is coming off a T8 in the Playoff opener and has now made seven straight cuts with three Top 10's and five Top 25's. Looking at some current stats form(via Fantasy National Golf Club), he ranks 5th in SG: Total, 8th in SG: Ball Striking, 10th in SG: Par and 8th in SG: Par 5 over the last 12 rounds. He also has some outside motivation this week as a win would shake up Jim Furyk's decision making when looking at the Ryder Cup. At these prices, Cantlay is most definitely a great play in all formats.
Also consider Jordan Spieth who is being even more overlooked than DJ and has seen a dip in his price and will be low owned in GPP formats.
Mid Tier Targets
Hideki Matsuyama(DK - $8,900 FD - $11,000)
The fact that Matsuyama falls into the sub $9K range on DraftKings this week is enough for me to get some exposure. He has placed inside the Top 25 in three straight years here at TPC Boston and comes in with some form having finished Top 15 in back to back events at the Wyndham and Northern Trust. I mentioned weighing Strokes Gained: Approach very high this week with the fairways on the easier side of average to hit and Deki led the field in that category last week but almost two strokes over second(Keegan Bradley). He is an excellent target in all formats, especially for a balanced approach.
Gary Woodland(DK - $7,700 FD - $9,200)
Woodland also returns to TPC Boston with a good track record finishing Top 20 in three straight years. Even more good news as he has been very consistent lately and comes in with some nice form having made eight straight cuts with a Top 10 and four Top 25 finishes dating back to the Memorial at the start of June. Looking at my sheet, he ranks 5th in SG: Ball Striking and is Top 10 in both Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards. Fire up Woodland in all formats this week.
Also consider Billy Horschel as a high upside GPP play
C.T. Pan(DK - $6,700 FD - $7,800)
I know it's a relatively small field, but I was still surprised to see C.T. Pan in the sun $7K range this week. He comes into this week having made five straight cuts and ranks 8th in this field in average DraftKings scoring(82.4) during that stretch. He doesn't really stand out statistically on my sheet(full season) but looking at the last 12 rounds data(via Fantasy National), he ranks 25th in SG: Total, 9th in SG: Ball Striking(42nd OTT, 6th APP) and 13th in SG: Par 4. He makes a terrific target if you are going stars and scrubs this week.
Bronson Burgoon(DK - $6,800 FD - $7,300)
Pan is definitely a lot safer choice in the sub $7K range but Burgoon also makes a nice stars and scrubs play this week. The standard deviation has been very high lately as he finished T11 last week after missing three straight cuts(RBC Canadian Open, Wyndham Champ, OPEN Champ) and before that he was T2 at the John Deere Classic, T30 at the Greenbrier, and T6 at the Quicken Loans National. He has been barely mentioned when looking at FanShareSports and is likely to fall in the sub 5% ownership range and with upside, Burgoon makes a terrific GPP play this week.
Thanks for checking out this weeks article and if you have any questions regarding strategy, stats, other picks not mentioned, or really anything be sure to jump into the RotoPros Slack Chat or hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).