Hey everyone, and welcome back to the fourth week of NFL action and another edition of my Deep Stack Series.
This week my focus is around how tired I am of missing out on everyone in the same game. There have been too many game stacks to completely go off the handle, and rather than going deep enough or getting involved at all, I’ve been ignoring them for too long, it’s to for a return to the “deeper the better” heavyboards.
There are some really interesting QB options this weekend, and some super value WRs around the 5k range. It’s actually quite easy to fit in anyone and everyone, without taking serious salary risks. I’ve narrowed down a few that I like (not named FitzMagic) in the hopes of helping everyone better mange ownerships in deeper fields and single entry GPPs.
As always, best of luck, and I wish each and every one of you success this weekend! See you at the top!
Josh Allen to Chris Ivory (or LeSean McCoy)
Best Use: Single Entry GPP
Starting of the simple stacks very simply, we have the Bills duo of Josh Allen and Chris Ivory.
It feels like a lot of people have already forgotten how unreal Allen was last weekend. His rushing was off the charts, and when you consider the vast options across the board for this slate, it's really easy to forget Allen was even better than Mayfield.
The point here is really simple, and three fold. Firstly, get all of the Bills attack; their passing isn't reliable enough to target, but with McCoy potentially out or not at 100%, taking a risk on Ivory isn't the worst idea, especially considering McCoy's history of losing goal line work. In any case, either RB should suffice, but I prefer Ivory for ownership. Secondly, well, ownership. Nobody will be on the Bills, and if there was any team to buy low, it's absolutely Buffalo. The Browns and Baker have been flirting with success all season, so not many DFS minds will be itching to recall a Bills moment after how the season has started, and why should they? Oh yeah, because Allen is capable of way more than his salary presents, which is the third fold, massive savings. Josh Allen to either of the running backs is a borderline “one Kamara” in salary, so you can literally follow up with Kamara, Thomas, and then some.
Do I think Allen will go out and smash for a slate breaking performance? No, absolutely not. But when you have someone projecting to rush the same/if not more than Cam Newton, and costs borderline min salary, what do you really need? He should pay off within 8 rushing attempts. The idea isn't to have this duo be your slammers, let Kamara and Thomas do the heavy work, and carry along min-salary Allen for the ride.
All this is even before we touch on how drastically poor the Packers are at stopping rushing; which they most certainly are. Don't think too deeply about this one, keep it simple, and maybe, maybe bring it back with Adams, but that's a maybe.
CJ Beathard to Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle
Best Use: Any Low Buy-in, multi entry for a single shot.
Another simple stack people should consider is the 49ers trio of Beathard, Juszczyk, and Kittle. Nobody, and I mean nobody loves targeting their RB more than Beathard. He single handedly (quite literally) made Hyde not only a relevant DFS option last season, but a real life player as well, and the main reason for the pay jump to the Browns. That in itself should be a solid indication Beathard is going to be looking for his RB; no matter the circumstances. Now, the circumstances are actually pretty interesting, with Breida almost ending his season with a knee sprain, and Morris also dealing with a knee issue, things could very quickly fall into Juszczyk's hands. I'm actually super bullish on Juszczyk, but if anything his points won't be coming from straight rushes, but catches out of the backfield and goaline work.
So, we know Beathard loves to target his backfield, and Juszczyk could see more action from potential injuries. But there's also the fact Beathard and Kittle were college roommates, and had an excellent on field report last season as well. A lot of people, and I mean a lot, have been burned by Kittle in back to back weeks, and they may not be fully ready to jump back on board. That's fine; it may not produce the kind of identical value as the Bills, but the ownership on Juszczyk should be so low, that even him in the mix with Allen could produce serious ownership yields. Those guys are too cheap with their upside and ownership. But I digress, this game.
I'm not as crazy about Beathard as I am Allen, but it still remains to be said the Chargers are struggling without Bosa, and if they allow anything, it's time for the opposition QB.
Carson Wentz to Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz
Best Use: Single Entry
Another super simple stack that could be super potent come Sunday evening is the Eagles trio of QB to WR and TE.
Wentz is just a game or two shy from coming back into better, playable form, and considering a lot of people were on him immediately, chances are his ownership tide should recede dramatically. Agholor is in a very similar boat where his ownership was massive last slate (especially in cash), yet produced no valuable outcome. I'm also sick of the "TE not named Ertz" TD announcements, so frankly I can't be the only one to be recency biased as hell against these three.
This is one passing attack nobody will be eager to tread back to the well on. Especially with Ajayi and the DST looking flames, especially especially against a QB that technically can't hold a ball right now, it's really easy to forget the Titans are super, super hurt basically everywhere important. Walking wounded. Wentz should have little to no issue finding success this weekend, even at limited health.
While it's not the same kind of value looking to be carried as in other cheap options, I think Wentz and company have enough tools to break a slate wide open, and a trip down to Tennesse may just be what they need to rekindle everyone’s Eagles passing desires.
Jordan Howard/Bears DST
Best Use: Any GPP Setting
Just go back to the well, don't fight it.
The Bears DST has the highest floor in the league right now, especially considering their salary on DK, it doesn't even matter if FitzMagic morphs into real life FitzJesus. He's still going to get tagged at least three times, and probably one turnover. From that DST salary, all you need is for Fitzy not to be absolutely Kamara-esk insane for half a game, and you’re probably making something in return.
The Bears also showed a willingness last weekend to use Jordan Howard no matter the game script. This was awesome for me, because I had him in way too many important places. While he didn't break the slate like I'd hoped, he was still more than adequate, and if anything didn't do better, because ALL the Bears wanted to do was run it.
I'm still not convinced Trubisky has gotten past the “second season Blake Bortles syndrome” he has going on, so I can't see a situation where the Bears don't rely heavily on a pass rush against a QB whom has been throwing non-stop for 12 straight quarters.
Yes, FitzMagic can still put up 300+ yards again, but from the Bears salary and Howard's ownership, you can still easily get it done with Magic being Jesus.
Eagles RB/Eagles DST
Best Use: Any GPP Setting
It's probably going to be Ajayi, but honestly, when hasn't he been hurt?
It really doesn't matter, the Eagles DST should be the top defensive play this slate. Not only are they awesome, but they aren't the most expensive, and they are playing a QB who has a pool noodle for an arm.
Smallwood is probably still too cheap, and can still make pay even with Ajayi playing full throttle. Clement could be out, but falls into the same category of “it doesn't matter what Ajayi is doing”, it can still happen. And even then, very few people will be looking to an injured Ajayi who always seems to be out injured. I don't know, but damn that DST looks good.
So play the meta, try not to fight it, and get a Eagles RB in there, because if pool noodle boy is the only viable option against the league's top rush defense, the Eagles may end up running the ball for three straight quarters, getting nothing but defensive and ground points.
Jordan Wilkins/Colts DST
Best Use: Single Entry/Milly Maker
File this one under my "how badly do you want to win a million dollars?" portfolio.
Marlon Mack hasn't been healthy all season. It's too bad, because my buddy and I have been waiting for him to break out, but a hammy injury isn't something to just play through (ask Fournette). So, we also know Andrew Luck's arm strength is gone. It's sad, but no less a fact. Now, I'm not saying his arm will ruin everything and it will be a disaster the end; nothing of the sort. But, bbbuuttt, if there was anything that would suggest a possible script of not throwing the ball until/unless they have to, than it's definitely included in the mindset that involved bringing someone like Brissett to do the hail-mary's. You're basically on final straws at that point.
I'm not saying Wilkins is going to break the slate. What I am saying is he will most certainly be under 5% owned, and in the case he does have any kind of a game, it will be the rawest points on the board. I think a lot of people are forgetting Andrew Luck may not have to throw the ball 50 times anymore. It seems like such an instinctive action; “oh, it's Luck at home? Well, he's probably playing catch up”. That may not be the case anymore. Kind of like Wilkins, I'm not saying the Colts are going to break the DST slate. What I am saying is that the Colts aren't the same insta-click team to pick on anymore, especially for WR1. Now, Hopkins is probably match up proof, and after that point it's basically a drop off for skill in the Colts coverage crew, but like I said, it's just not the same insta-click as in the past, and that's going to create a ton of edges, because people love to insta-click.
It's a simple stack that doesn't bring in too much risk with the addition of the DST. Again, I'm not saying this will break the slate, but there's nothing to say Hilton will catch and run it in for 60yards every single time, and more to say about the expensive guys you can afford with Wilkins that will pay for him four times over. Think about it.
DeSean Jackson/Buccs DST
Best Use: Multi Entry Spam
DJacks was returning punts last game. That's all I really got on this one. It's far fetched, but that's literally what this article is about, getting deep. Not even gonna lie, was 2/2 on these last year with JarJar/Dolphins, and AB/Steelers. I feel it this week, calling a DJacks punt return, and the Buccs DST to surprise everyone because Trubisky still can't play NFL caliber football. Did you see the Jackpot on the FanDuel Milly? I did. Buccs would be so low owned, can’t imagine a bigger pay than DJacks taking one back on the Bears.
HEAVYBOARD COMEBACK STACKS
Drew Brees or Eli Manning to Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas or Ted Ginn, Sterling Shepard, OBJ, and Rhett Ellison.
Best Use: Everywhere. Spam Low Entry.
How many more Saints games do we need before we stop saying "wow, wish I took EVERYONE from this game!"?
It's getting ridiculous, and I'm going full throttle until things calm down. The question is how best to fit them all in without ruining your ability to still put forward a real card. The biggest issue is getting Brees/Kamara/Thomas together, and still be able to come back with something more than uber-lock Ellison. Truthfully, the only way to really do this is with Eli, because with Brees you are basically cutting a leg out from the stack, where with Eli you're able to get literally everyone you want, and still not risk missing the shoot out points. With Brees, you can't come back with OBJ, but with Eli, you can come back with both Thomas and Kamara, all the Giants, and even Ted Ginn if you want to be frisky (highly recommended on FD if you punt on defense, leads to Gio).
I think this game stack would work best in a low entry style GPP because you can put all your entries with this one game stack, and if it hits, you'll have three or so unique cards in the top of the payouts, hopefully one taking down and the other(s) closely following. If you are going to mass multi-entry, I can't imagine a better game from this slate that will have the highest probability of shooting out, and still provide low owned players.
The Giants used to be a massive funnel TE pass defense, now, they just suck. Even worse, they have injuries to deal with. Much the same with the Saints who were already super weak in depth, they lost their best pass coverage guy for the foreseeable future. Much like the Giants, the Saints just suck defensively now, but, BUT, both teams somehow have a rush defense that is towards the top of the league.
So, expect insane amounts of passing from this one. Eli, Kamara, Thomas, OBJ, Ginn, Sterling, and Ellison, and if you can drop OBJ for just Sterling and up to Brees, that works too. I prefer Eli in this stack, but still believe Brees will raw points himself another slate breaking performance. Because hey, he’s friggin’ beautiful.
Tom Brady or Ryan Tannehill to James White, Kenny Stills, Rob Gronkowski, and Mike Gesicki
Best Use: Single/Low Entry
This is another game I think has sneaky shootout potential, but at the same time will provide some interesting ownerships for us to manipulate.
Last season in this game, Brady threw for a gazillion TD's in a week nobody thought he’d throw for two. If there was anything I could say about Brady right now, it's he would be lucky to score two TDs this weekend; the Pats look worn. So, same situation, and it is Brady, right?
The big thing here is the Dolphins getting ahead, and Brady having to play catch-up. Depending on who you want to fill the card out with (probably that 9k guy), you probably don't want Brady, but a cheap QB instead. Fire in Tanny, he may not break the slate, but chances are he's being priced because he's playing Tom Brady, not because he's playing badly or in poor form. The Dolphins are 3-0 after all. He's not great, but he's not Pats pass coverage bad. They are bad. Which leads me to one of the biggest plays of the slate, Kenny Stills. If there was a GPP lock outside of Ellison I would instantly look to fill with, it's EASILY Kenny Stills. Look, I'll level with you guys. I'm an OK athlete, but if there was anything that ever held me back, it was speed, especially long distance. I know slow. The Pats? They are friggin slow. Stills should burn these guys for multiple long distance TDs. It's kind of a poor man's Brees/Eli decision, either pay up for Brady and not be able to afford that 9k guy, or spend down on Tanny, get the whole stack, and be able to fill with basically whoever you want. James White should get extra work no matter what, and with Sonny Michel looking to impress more over time rather than have a blow up game, I'd rather look to White who has consistently put up +20fpts games, especially at home against a team that's making them throw to stay ahead. Hogan is meh. Dorsett has been non-existent. Amendola is too short yard for GPP, and not consistent enough for cash. Albert Wilson maybe? He burned me last weekend....
Get both TE into this game stack. I do like Ellison, it's true, but I still think Gronk is Gronk, and literally the only star threat on the Pats atm. The guy who allowed Jordy Nelson to break last weekend’s slate is also set to mark Gronk. OK. Thanks. Bye now. Gesicki will be super lucky to draw %5 ownership, so he's a low cost punt that even allows Brady and Kamara, but with Tanny and Kamara, you can still get Thomas too.
I dunno, it could easily be Michel I suppose, but I really don't like that game script. This game may not shoot out like the rest, but the Dolphins value and ownerships are hard to turn down. The more the merrier, people won't be heavy on this game despite being loaded with potential.
Deshaun Watson or Andrew Luck to TY Hilton, Will Fuller and Eric Ebron. DeAndre Hopkins if needed.
Best Use: Any Multi Entry Spam
Honestly, I'm not on this game as other people are, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make sense.
Both teams are massive pass funnel defense, and both of the pass coverages are poor...at best. The Texans are one of the most injured defenses in the league, and the Colts were never #good. While this stack is the exact same QB option, spend up here spend down there, I feel just as strongly about maxing out entries on this game stack. Hilton, Ebron, and Fuller will all be popular this slate. But, together, that may be the only way to properly attack their ownerships. Ebron especially, outside of cash taking him by himself is basically pointless unless your entire stack/premise is already low owned. If Ebron (outside Kamara, obviously) isn't the highest owned player of the slate... not sure what to say.
Both QBs can and will throw it 40 times, but Watson has a massive rush upside. Not much really needs to be said about the three WRs that has never been said before. I'm a little less bullish on Hopkins, mostly because he is mortal, and eventually when he is hurting in literally the three most important places for a WR (hand, ankle, hammy), like, these things HAVE to add up at some point. I get it, he's nuclear, it doesn't matter, but to me, it does.
Not adding Hopkins could be a massive edge in this stack, because Hopkins should still draw ownership, especially in this kind of stack. So, you are setting yourself apart from the risk that is Hopkins ownership, and creating a better edge from the edge that was already made from a stack.
The point to remember is when Ebron is played, he needs to be in a stack, or fill in a card that's already a unique stack. Hopkins should probably be faded, because by himself isn't any kind of ownership , and dropping his ownership tag is positive to your edge. I like them, but not love them.
Andy Dalton to Gio Bernard, Tyler Boyd, and Calvin Ridley. Austin Hooper if needed.
Best Use: How to combat Bernard, Boyd, and Ridley ownership (not with Ryan)
If there's one thing I learned from last weekend, it's Ridley is running Julio routes. That's it, plain and simple, all we need to know. All those sick routes we profited on from Julio Jones are now being run by Ridley, and we all saw how efficient it is.
How bad the Falcons are vs. pass catching backs is old news, so Gio is obviously crucial on a Kamara level. Boyd and Ridley fill in as super popular value plays, but actually play into the stack, and together is less owned. I really feel the same way about Green as I do Hopkins; hurt, actually really hurt. Does it really change how Green will do? I don't know. Could it? Yes. Big time. Especially when people will still be flocking to him in a game that already has obvious stacking options.
I don't think many people will look to the Red Rocket after his 4INT last game, but hey, at least he can throw the ball 50 yards (Luck). The real reason I'm talking Dalton is Gio, as I expect that target share to massively pay off. If Green isn't 100% healthy, he may not have the breakaway speed and power he normally does, and Boyd may get more looks. May, may, may, I know. Much like Ridley, this isn't a buy low anymore, as everyone should know about these two. It's important to script a way around their solo ownership, and I like using them both either as fills as a mini-come back, or use them in a bigger stack as shown here. With Green, same as Hopkins, you take on too much ownership that's already there. Use that salary and space to be different, or more raw points oriented.
I think this game can completely shoot out, and if Mat Ryan didn't score 100fpts last weekend, I'd say his ownership was still too low. It won't be. Use Dalton for a discount in salary and ownership, while still getting important parts to the game.
Dalton threw 4INT last game, and it wouldn't be the first time a lock RB in a smash spot screws off....MURRAY.
I will forever stand by my statement Philip Rivers is the dumbest starting QB in the league. Great guy? Outstanding. Family man? The best. Reliable QB? No. Way.
Sure, this could be a MelMel script in the waiting, but the Chargers are super banged up at the moment. Their pass rush is non-existent without Bosa, and Verrett missing will eventually show itself. The Chargers drafted a super rookie, but if anything, that's just less Kittle.
The Chargers could completely sputter this weekend, and nobody will see it coming. Rivers is Rivers, and is ALWAYS worth 4-5INT. Keenen Allen isn't healthy, and neither is Benjamin. No Hunter Henry. Not to mention, what happens if their banged up defense can't get Beathard off the field al la Josh Allen last weekend? There's a huge edge here, that's all I'm saying.
So, when you need to punt on DST, you can use the 49ers. Much like the Colts and the Browns, these just aren't the teams we can pick on anymore.
James White and Chris Ivory
Quickly, a couple guys I already mentioned in stacks.
The big thing here is uptick from injuries, and people aren't seeing it coming. I still say McCoy is always hurt, and was never the Bills goal line back. James White will see all the passing work now, and his salary didn't adjust.
That's all. White definitely over Ivory, but no question Ivory will not be owner, period.
Another guy I'm having trouble completely ignoring is the Raider’s pass catching back Jalen Richard.
It sucks; Week 1, saw it, loved it. Week 2, all over it thinking I was cute, nowhere to be found. Week 3, felt burned, saw it again, fell back in love all over again. His salary is chump change, CHUMP, and if he happens to roll off a TD, you are flames city.
Call you local fire dept ahead of time, let them know you're drafting Jalen in a game they will be coming from behind (again). They'll thank you later.
The ageless wonder, and rivals Philp Rivers for most kids in the NFL.
I love this game. The Giants have NEVER defended the TE. I wanted to mention him by his lonesome because I do love Ellison as well, but Watson may be even more valuable. With each possession, Brees seems to be looking at Watson more and more. With Thomas drawing more coverage, Kamara the necessity attention, and with Ginn drawing downfield, it's opening up a ton of space for Watson. That's the thing, the more and more everyone else on the Saints do crazy things, the more and more other teams will have to compensate, and EVERY time a team compensates, it leads to TE action.
Take him and Ellison together. Take them by themselves. Just make sure you take them. I like Watson a tiny bit more, because I think a lot more space will be opening up for him, and he has Brees throwing him the ball.
MY LOCK, YOUR FADE
I'm back, and I'm hoping the well tastes fine.
This weekend, you can point to literally any part of this team, and there is something to be had. If there was a most improved defense three weeks in, it would easily be the Browns DST. Their drafting is finally paying off, and it seems this inept play calling is at the very least being held to the offense. Which is the second part, completely revamped offense. New coaching decision/process, new QB with balls that scrape the ground more than anyone in the league. Honestly, Mayfield walks into a room, it's like he's already been there for 10min. And his salary!? I wonder if DK were actively avoiding the numerous Gruden interviews talking about the Raiders’ absolute lack of pass rush. Mayfield doesn't need time, and if you give it to him....look out. You can even give Carlos Hyde a massive uptick, because if the Browns get ahead, logic would dictate they run the ball more. He even makes a crazy sneaky stack with the Browns DST. Jarvis Landy is insanity defined through statistics, and his league leading stats last year should only be improved this season by his massive uptick in usage/types of usage. Callaway is one of my favourite rookies this season, and has been absolutely electric with his 7 catches. 11 targets last weekend? Can you spell Ridley-esk? And Njoku, the guy everyone knows can do it, and is just waiting before they jump on board. Don’t wait. A new QB the likes of Mayfield is EXACTLY the kind of player guys like Landry and Njoku need to be successful.
Name the stack. Any which way, it works. And better yet, Derek Carr has been absurdly accurate so far this season, so there's nothing to suggest they can't keep it close with their options and weapons. Jared Cook should still deserve ownership, and works great on a comeback which people will be chasing Jordy points.
Like I said though, this is about Baker and his dozen, or whatever. Dozen TDs more like it.
FIRE IT UP!
TOP DEEP FIELD GPP PLAYS
QB: Baker Mayfield, CLeveland Browns
Will be a little too owned to be considered the best play, but when you can’t own every QB, Baker should slip through enough cracks to be ultra valuable.
RB: Kyle JuszczyK, San Francisco 49ers
He’s the kind of guy that’s going to be on the Milly winning card. With even the slightest bit of luck, he is poised to break the slate. With no luck at all, he still could do well enough to help you along. It’s risky, but real.
WR: Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins
One of the fastest guys in the league against a coverage team that can’t catch a parked bus in a shoot out game? Yes please. Everyone is so used to seeing his salary at sub 5k, now that he’s almost 6k, everyone will be terrified. GPP lock on FanDuel with Ted Ginn Jr. Still a very close first to Jarvis Landry.
TE: Rhett Ellison, New York Giants
Insanely cheap. Insanely low owned. Game that should completely shoot out. Honestly, I’m probably taking him in cash, I don’t even care anymore. He checks every box, then takes said box and ignites a pound of TNT inside of it. Want literally everyone in your lineup? Take Ellison.