There is a freight train rolling through the FedEx Cup Playoffs right now and his name is Bryson DeChambeau. He has won the first two events with a combined score of -34 while gaining 27.8 strokes total, eight full strokes more than Finau and Cam Smith in second. He now has a whopping 2,328 point lead on Dustin Johnson in the standings. Can anyone stop him from taking home the FedEx Cup and 10 million dollar paycheck? We will soon find out.
The Playoffs roll on as the Top 70 golfers in the standings will tee it up this week at the BMW Championship. The course for this event rotates yearly and this week will be hosted at Aronimink Golf Club outside of Philadelphia, PA. Course history will be heavily downgraded this week as the course has not been used on Tour since the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National. The other big factor that changes things for those who have played the Donald Ross designed course in the past is that Gil Hanse performed a renovation in 2016 which saw widening of the fairways, the addition of about 100 bunkers, and the greens were also made bigger.
From a fantasy perspective, I will be weighing Strokes Gained: Approach over the Off the Tee metrics as the fairways hit % should be high leaving this mostly a second shot course. Breaking down those Approach stats, I think Proximity stands out the most with the large green sizes that are also undulated. Weather permitting, I also think the winning score will be lower than it was in 2010(-10) and 2011(-13) meaning Birdie or Better % will also be very important. Finally, with this being a Par 70 it has 12 Par 4 holes and seven of those holes fall between 400 and 450 yards so keep that in mind when building your models.
Before jumping into the picks, be sure to get your copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet which highlights a ton of advanced stats, course history, current form and puts it all together into a customizable model. If you have any questions about the sheet or anything involving daily fantasy golf be sure to join me in the RotoPros Slack Chat. Not a member? Be sure to get over to RotoPros.com and get your FREE two-week trial. Let's get into the picks!
Top Tier Targets
Dustin Johnson(DK - $11,600 FD - $12,400)
I am going right back to the #1 player in the world this week after a T7 finish at the Dell Technologies Championship last week. Like the opening Playoff event, he once again had a disappointing Saturday 72 but the good news is that he once again had a ton of birdies(22) and ranked 6th overall in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 7th in DraftKings scoring. I doubt he will be as low owned this week but almost no one has the same upside and with the values on both sites, he makes a great play in all formats.
Justin Rose(DK - $11,200 FD - $11,00)
Rose bounced back in a big way after missing the cut at the Northern Trust. He opened with a 65 on Friday and after two other rounds under 70, ended up with a runner-up finish at the Dell Technologies Championship. He ranks third in the FedEx Cup Cup standings going into the final event before the Tour Championship and staying inside that Top 5 is huge. He will likely be chalky this week for those looking back at course history as he played here both years I talked about finishing T15 in 2011 and winning the AT&T National in 2010. He is in play on both sites but has much better value on FanDuel as the fifth most expensive golfer(2nd on DraftKings).
Mid Tier Targets
Francesco Molinari(DK - $8,800 FD - $10,800)
Molinari returns to the playoffs after taking a week off at the Dell Technologies Championship following his missed cut at the Northern Trust. Before that missed cut he was one of the hottest players in the world as he picked up three wins and six total Top 10's in an eight worldwide event stretch. Looking at the last 24 rounds data, he ranks 1st in SG: Total, 2nd in SG: Approach(19th in Prox), 1st in Par 4 Scoring(6th from 400-450 yards), and 4th in DraftKings scoring. At these prices in a smaller field, Molinari is a great play in all formats.
Billy Horschel(DK - $8,000 FD - $8,300)
If you are looking to make a GPP pivot in the mid-range this week get Billy Horschel in your lineups. There is a good chance he is lower owned than last week(9% average) as he withdrew causing an uproar on DFS PGA Twitter. I am not too concerned as it does not seem like a big issue going forward and he fits the model well rank 2nd in SG: Approach, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Proximity, and 17th in DraftKings scoring over the last 24 rounds. Recency bias is a real thing and if people will be avoiding him I think we can take advantage with a player with some upside that also comes at a discount in this smaller field.
C.T. Pan(DK - $6,900 FD - $8,300)
By the looks of the tag counts over at FanShareSports, Pan will be one of the highest owned golfers this week and it is easy to see why. First of all, he has been very consistent making six straight and 11 of his last 12 cuts and has flashed big upside recently with Top 5 finishes in two of his last three events(T4 last week). Looking at the last 24 rounds data(via Fantasy National Golf Club), he ranks 17th in SG: Total, 12th in SG: Approach, 6th in Par 4 Scoring(8th form 400-450 yards), and 16th in DraftKings scoring. Considering all that data, he is underpriced on both sites(45th on DK, 43rd on FD) compared to his win odds(33rd best) and a great play in all formats.
Jason Kokrak(DK - $6,900 FD - $7,700)
Kokrak doesn't really stand out from an overall statistical standpoint but he comes in with his best form since the wrap-around portion of the season last fall. He has made five straight cuts dating back to the RBC Canadian Open and during that stretch sits 13th in average DraftKings points per event(79.2). One stat that does stand out recently is the Approach game as he ranks 8th in SG: Approach and 17th in Proximity over the last 24 rounds. He is another nice option that allows you to pay up for multiple mid to top tier players in GPP formats.