The final event of the 2017-18 season has arrived as the Top 30 players in the standings head to East Lake Golf Club for the Tour Championship. Those players seated inside the Top 5 of the standings have the best opportunity as a win at the Tour Championship guarantees them the FedEx Cup and the $10,000,000 payday. That doesn’t mean the other players can’t win it just means there path to the FedEx Cup is much harder. Check out the scenarios HERE.
The course is on the longer end of the Par 70 spectrum at 7,346 yards. You would this would give an advantage to the long hitters and it does somewhat but keep in mind the fairways here are narrow with medium to hard rough so hitting the fairways is key. If you are targeting long hitters, make sure they also have some accuracy on their side. On the other hand, if you are targeting shorter hitters with accuracy make sure they are good with their long irons as they will likely have lots of approaches from 1750-200 and 200+ yards. The other thing I will be keying in on this week is Par 4 scoring as there are 12 of them on this Par 70 course with six of them coming in the 450+ yard range.
Before jumping into the picks, be sure to get your copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet which highlights a ton of advanced stats, course history, current form and puts it all together into a customizable model. If you have any questions about the sheet or anything involving daily fantasy golf be sure to join me in the RotoPros Slack Chat. Not a member? Be sure to get over to RotoPros.com and get your FREE two-week trial. Let's get into the picks!
Top Tier Targets
Justin Rose(DK - $11,400 FD - $11,200)
Rose opened the Playoffs with a missed cut at the Northern Trust but has rebounded in a big way finishing runner-up at the Dell Technologies Championship and BMW Championship. He now will look to cap off a tremendous season at East lake where he has had a ton of success in the past with five straight Top 10’s and three Top 5 finishes. In that time, he leads all golfers in the field in SG: Total, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, and 3rd in DraftKings scoring. Given there are some very good players in this small field priced down in the mid $7K to sub $7K range(DraftKings), it will not be hard to build lineups around Rose in all formats.
Brooks Koepka(DK - $10,000 FD - $11,300)
Koepka comes in to the week ranked 7th in the FedEx Cup standings so he isn’t guaranteed to win the FedEx Cup with a win but it is pretty close. He came back form an early season back injury and ended up having an amazing season winning both the US Open and PGA Championship, finishing Top 5 at the WGC Bridgestone, 2nd at the Fort Worth Invitational and only missed one cut in 13 stroke-play events. Looking at my mixed condition model over at Fantasy National Golf Club, Koepka sits 4th overall with ranks of 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, 3rd in DraftKings scoring, and 1st in SG: Off the Tee over the last 24 rounds. He is the lowest priced golfer in the top tier on DraftKings and a great play in all formats.
Mid Tier Targets
Francesco Molinari(DK - $8,200 FD - $10,300)
After missing the cut at the opening playoff event(The Northern Trust) followed by a week off, I wrote up Molinari last week and after an opening round 70 he bounced back to finish T8. We need upside in a small event like this and Molinari delivers just that as he has three worldwide wins(OPEN Championship, BMW PGA, Quicken Loans National) since missing the cut at the PLAYERS back in May. He has never played here at East Lake but looking at the mixed condition model, he coes in 2nd overall with ranks of 2nd in SG: Par 4, 3rd in SG: Ball Striking, 9th in SG: OTT, and 9th in DraftKings scoring. At these prices, Molinari is most definitely in my core this week on both sites.
Tony Finau(DK - $8,600 FD - $10,300)
Despite not being able to finish and pick up a win in 2018, Tony Finau is having a terrific season and enters the Tour Championship as the #3 seed. Through 25 stroke-play events, he has missed just three cuts with 10 Top 10 finishes including each of the three playoff events so far. In those three playoff events, he has shot rounds under 70 in all 12 and in 18 of his last 20 rounds overall. He finished 7th here last year, ranks Top 5 in my mixed condition model and will also be a core player for me this week.
Patrick Cantlay(DK - $7,100 FD - $8,900)
There is a ton of value in the sub $7.5K range this week with such a small field and if you are looking to differentiate yourself, just go against course history and/or form. Cantlay happens to have both this week as he finished T20 here in his first trip to East lake last year and comes in with T24 at the Dell Technologies Championship and a T55 at the BMW Championship. He is likely to be the 5th highest owned in this range and I will take that risk as he sits 11th in my overall mixed condition model ranking 13th in SG: Par 4, 6th in SG: Ball Striking, and 3rd in SG: Off the Tee.
Also Consider: Xander Schauffele who won here last year, Paul Casey who has three straight Top 5’s here at East lake