This week the PGA Tour heads to San Diego, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. Like last week, this event uses multiple courses but that is about where the comparable’s stop. Torrey Pines South Course will be the host course this week(3 of the 4 rounds) with the Torrey Pines North course also being used for round(per player) in the first two days. The South Course is an absolute beast at 7,698 yards with six of the Par 4’s exceeding 450 yards and two of the four Par 5’s exceeding 600 yards. Along with the length of this course, it also comes with smaller than average greens which puts a ton of emphasis on not only Strokes Gained: Approach but also Around the Green/Scrambling. Overall, it is a course and event that will challenge almost every facet of a players game. Let’s jump in and take a look at the previous winners, the courses, key stats, weather forecast, and then get into the picks.
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Previous Five Winners
2018 - Jason Day(-10)
2017 - Jon Rahm(-13)
2016 - Brandt Snedeker(-6)
2015 - Jason Day(-9)
2014 - Scott Stallings(-9)
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Before jumping into the picks, be sure to get your copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet which highlights a ton of advanced stats, course history, current form and puts it all together into a customizable model. If you have any questions about the sheet or anything involving daily fantasy golf be sure to join me in the RotoPros Slack Chat. Not a member? Be sure to get over to RotoPros.com and get your FREE two-week trial. Let's get into the picks!
Top Tier Targets
Tony Finau(DK - $9,900 FD - $10,700)
I will once again be going with a more balanced approach for cash games this week and it starts with Tony Finau who checks off every box this week and is #1 in my overall model. It starts with his course history as he has made the cut here at the Farmers in all four trips including back to back Top 6 finishes the last two years. He comes into this year’s event with some nice form as well with a T10 at the Alfred Dunhill Links , a runner-up at the WGC HSBC Champions, T36 at the Shriners Open, and T16 at the Mayakoba Classic. To cap it off, he crushes the stats model averaging over 316 yards per drive, ranks 24th in SG: Ball Striking, 6th in SG: Around the Green, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in Birdie or Better %, and 16th in Bogey Avoidance. All things considered, Finau is my top PTS/$ in all formats.
Also Consider: Marc Leishman
Rickie Fowler(DK - $9,300 FD - $10,900)
When looking for a great GPP play in the top tier I am looking to pivot off some of the chalky plays(Rahm, Finau, Woods, Howell III) to someone who is projected for half the ownership but has similar upside. Enter Rickie Fowler who is likely to be lower owned due to his recent history here at Torrey Pines as he has missed the cut in three straight and four of his last five trips here. Don’t be afraid of that recent history, however, as he finished Top 20 in his first four trips and has also carried over his strong finish to last season(T8-BMW Championship, T7 Tour Championship) with a T4 at the Shriners and T16 at the Mayakoba Classic. Surprisingly, Fowler also tops the stats model ranking 15th in SG: Ball Striking, 25th in Proximity, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in Birdie or Better %, and 4th in Bogey Avoidance. There is risk but at these prices, Fowler makes a perfect pivot with winning upside for this week.
Also Consider: Jon Rahm
Mid Tier Targets
J.B. Holmes(DK - $7,900 FD - $10,500)
Holmes has been very consistent to start the 2018-19 season making all four cuts with three Top 25 and one Top 10 finish. He now returns to a course and event where he has excellent recent history with a T6 or better in three of his last four years. His stats don’t jump off the page but stands out in a few areas starting with his distance off the tee combined with his 11th rank in SG: Around the Green and 22nd rank in Par 4 Scoring. At his price on DraftKings, he is a great play in cash and also has upside for GPP formats.
Also Consider: Cameron Smith
Cameron Champ(DK - $8,500 FD - $9,800)
From a PTS/$ perspective, I don’t think there is anyone in the field with more upside than Cameron Champ. He has already won in his rookie season(Sanderson Farms Championship) and has three Top 10’s and five Top 25’s in his first seven starts on Tour. He is coming off a MDF(T73) at the Sony Open but this course is much more setup to his liking as he will be able to use his length(316+ yards per drive) to help lower the distance on approaches. He has also shown to be a very good putter(25th in SG: Putting) and while the proximity numbers bring down the SG: Approach numbers, he is hitting just over 76% of Greens in Regulation to start his career. He will likely be chalky in this range but at these prices it will be hard to pass someone with his upside in GPP formats. I will be overweight on him this week.
Also Consider: Patrick Reed
Keith Mitchell(DK - $7,000 FD - $8,300)
Mitchell is coming off a productive rookie season where made 21 of 29 cuts with four Top 10’s and six Top 25’s and has shown consistency early this season as well. Through five events, he has made four cuts with three Top 25 finishes. He has more than enough distance off the tee for Torrey Pines coming off a season where he averaged well over 300 yards per drive and has really improved his around the green game since last season so I see him besting his T63 in his first trip here last year.
Also Consider: Anders Albertson in all formats
Thanks for checking out the article and if you have any questions about the cheatsheet, players I listed, or anything DFS PGA related at all please reach out in the RotoPros Community Chat or on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Not a RotoPros member yet? Be sure to get over and SIGN UP for your FREE two-week trial. You won’t be disappointed.