Welcome back golf fans. The holidays are over, the calendar has flipped to 2019 and that means it’s time to get back on the DFS PGA train. The 2019 portion of the season starts with the Sentry Tournament of Champions where each player who won a PGA Tour event in 2018 is invited to attend. This season, there will be 34 players heading to Kapalua, Hawaii as Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, and Justin Rose have withdrawn. This event is also a no-cut event meaning all players will play all four rounds. If you are playing cash games, make sure to look for more upside than usual. Let’s dig in and take a look at the course, trends, key stats, and some of the top players to target in each price range.
The Plantation Course is a 7,452 yard, Par 73 setup with three Par 3’s, 11 Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. The Par 5 5th, 9th, and 15th hole are the three easiest holes on the course that produce on average about 35% of all birdies for the event. Overall, this course is one of the easier test on tour and has generated an average winning score of -23 over the past five years. The fairways are very generous so I will be leaning heavily on distance over accuracy and approach shots will also be very important and the way golfers will separate themselves from the pack. Par 4 scoring will also be near the top of my list this week as these 11 holes have been where the winner has separated himself when looking back at previous results. As with any event where we expect a ton of scoring, I will be weighing Birdie or Better % heavily as well. The final thing to watch out for this week is the weather as the first two days of the event are expected to see winds of around 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Be sure to check the forecast closer to lineup lock.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4 Scoring
Birdie or Better %
Before jumping into the picks, be sure to get your copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet which highlights a ton of advanced stats, course history, current form and puts it all together into a customizable model. If you have any questions about the sheet or anything involving daily fantasy golf be sure to join me in the RotoPros Slack Chat. Not a member? Be sure to get over to RotoPros.com and get your FREE two-week trial. Let's get into the picks!
Top Tier Targets
Dustin Johnson(DK - $11,000 FD - $12,000)
DJ is the favorite to win this week and it makes a ton of sense as he has easily the best course history of any player. He won here last year by eight strokes and now has two wins and six Top 10 finishes in his seven trips to the Plantation course. He is coming off another successful season adding two other wins at the RBC Canadian Open and the St. Jude Classic with 12 Top 10’s and 17 Top 25 finishes in 20 events. He checks off all the stats boxes as well as one of the longest hitters on Tour and ranks 3rd in SG: Approach, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, and 5th in Birdie or Better %. With softer pricing this week, DJ is a core play in all formats.
Justin Thomas(DK - $10,500 FD - $11,200)
Thomas qualified for this event with two wins at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and Honda Classic and had 10 total Top 10 finishes in 2018. He is an excellent pivot off Dustin Johnson this week and comes at a nice discount on both sites. He has played in this event in each of the last three years and while he has finished outside the Top 20 twice, he won the Tournament of Champions in 2017 as a part of a Hawaii sweep and huge season. Coming into this event, he ranks 3rd in SG: Tee to Green, 2nd in SG: Approach, and 6th in Birdie or Better %. For cash games, I like building around DJ but for GPP’s I will have a ton of exposure to JT.
Mid Tier Targets
Bryson DeChambeau(DK - $8,700 FD - $10,900)
At this time last year Bryson was ranked at #94 in the Official World Golf Rankings and a monster season vaulted him all the way up inside the Top 5. He ended up winning three big tournaments including the Memorial and the first two playoff events(The Northern Trust, Dell Technologies Championship) and then opened the 2018-19 season with a win at the Shriners Open. He led the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, Overall Scoring Average(67.5), Par 4 Scoring, and finished T4 in Birdie or Better %. He didn’t fare so well here last season finishing 26th but is a much more experienced player this time around and is one of the favorites to win and a safe play in all formats, especially on DraftKings where he is 7th in pricing.
Aaron Wise(DK - $7,500 FD - $8,200)
It was an up and down rookie season for Aaron Wise as he missed 12 cuts but did show a ton of upside with a win at the AT&T Byron Nelson and four Top 10 finishes. Adding to the upside for DFS, he ended the season ranked 31st in scoring average and 13th in Birdie or Better %. Wise comes into this week with some nice form following a successful fall season where he tallied a T15 at the Shriners Open and T10 at the Mayakoba Classic. Best of all, the price is cheap on both sites making it an easy fit with one of the top prices players in GPP formats.
Billy Horschel(DK - $7,000 FD - $8,100)
Horschel qualified for this event through the team event Zurich Classic but discount him as he returns to the Plantation Course with some positive course history. He finished 11th here last year and also did well in 2014 where he finished T6. He doesn’t really pop off the page when looking at the stats model on my sheet but looking at the last 24 rounds data(via Fantasy National), he is 5th in the field in SG: Tee Green and 1st in SG: Approach. Looking at all the golfers in the sub $7.5K range on DraftKings, he also the best odds to win and will be a part of my core in all formats.
Also Consider: Scott Piercy
Thanks for checking out the article and if you have any questions about the cheatsheet, players I listed, or anything DFS PGA related at all please reach out in the RotoPros Slack Chat or on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Not a RotoPros member yet? Be sure to get over and SIGN UP for your FREE two-week trial. You won’t be disappointed.