Welcome back baseball fans. Tonight begins with a two-game slate that starts at 6:35 ET but for this article I will be looking at my core pitchers and stacks for the 13-game main slate. Let’s get started.
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With that, let’s jump into the picks.
Matt Boyd(DK - $10,300 FD - $10,200)
Boyd has been very consistent all season and it starts with his durability as he has gone at least six innings in nine of his 11 starts with eight quality starts(FanDuel bonus). The biggest difference he made started last season when he somewhat ditched the changeup and replaced it with more sliders(33% since start of 2018). That slider has generated a whopping 18% swinging strike rate this season which has helped him to a very impressive 3.11 ERA backed up by a 3.56 xFIP. The Orioles bats have come alive lately but overall they rank in the bottom half in almost all offensive categories and strike out just over 26% of the time vs. left-handed pitching. Fire up Boyd in all formats.
Ryan Yarbrough(DK - $8,300 FD - $6,000)
Yarbrough looked terrific in his first official start of the season holding the Indians to four hits and two earned runs while going 7.1 innings. Overall, the ERA(6.38) looks alarming but the xFIP(4.42) is right around two runs lower and he has also allowed the second-lowest average exit velocity(81.6 mph) of all pitchers in the league so I am not too concerned going forward. Ryne Stanek will open today but Yarbrough will get the bulk of the innings and faces a Jays team that is essentially a glorified Triple-A team at this time and have not only struck out 25% of the time on the season but also 28% over the last seven days.
Also Consider: Lucas Giolito(CWS)
Teams to Target
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game Stack
Coors Field is my first stop tonight with its ridiculous 12.5 opening total. I will start with the home team which has been red-hot posting a .393 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and .223 ISO over the last seven days and now get a matchup against Merrill Kelly who has a 1.55 WHIP and is giving up a ton of line drives(24.3%) and flyballs(37%). The D-Backs are also in a great spot tonight against Antonio Senzatela who has an even worse 1.62 WHIP and while he isn’t giving up as many flyballs(25%) has given up an average exit velocity of 90 mph with an ugly 47% hard contact rate.
Cash Options: Nolan Arenado/Raimel Tapia(COL), Ketel Marte/Jarrod Dyson(ARI)
GPP Options: Trevor Story(COL), Eduardo Escobar/Christian Walker/Alex Avila(ARI)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
There is a chance of rain in this one but would be more worried about the pitchers than bats. That is great news as this is another strong candidate for a game stack. The Cardinals have struggled with the bats lately but get a top matchup tonight against Nick Pivetta who has given up 17 earned runs(5 HR) in his first four starts(8.35 ERA/4.82 xFIP) while also giving up an average exit velocity of 91 mph with a 44% had contact rate. The Phillies have been lately in all areas, especially in the power department(.206 ISO), and also get a plus matchup. They face Adam Wainwright who is on the wrong side of the age curve and enters tonight with a 4.82 ERA/4.77 xFIP and has already given up eight home runs(17% hr/fb). Provided the forecast clears up a bit by lock, I will be targeting this game in all formats.
Cash Options: Dexter Fowler/Paul Goldschmidt(STL), Andrew McCutchen/Jean Segura(PHI)
Add for a GPP Stack: Marcell Ozuna/Matt Carpenter(STL), Bryce Harper/Rhys Hoskins(PHI)
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