This week the PGA Tour heads to Dublin, Ohio and Muirfield Village Golf Club for the 2019 Memorial Tournament. As always, this invitational only field is very strong with seven of the Top 10 and 32 of the World’s Top 50 golfers teeing it up at Jack’s Place.
The course is Jack Nicklaus designed, par 72 that stretches out to 7,392 Yards. While the fairways are very generous and produce around a 70% driving accuracy for the field, it should be noted that missing them can be very penal and make par a tough score. The rough is thick and can lead to just chipping out to the fairway which in turn leads to bogeys or worse. In my model, I am weighing driving accuracy(my sheet) and fairways Gained(FNGC) very high. Equally and maybe even more important this week is the approach shot as it has proved to be the area where golfers have separated themselves on the leaderboards in the past.
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Let’s take a look at some of the course info, previous winners, and then jump into the picks.
Previous Five Winners
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau(-15)
2017 - Jason Dufner(-13)
2016 - William McGirt(-15)
2015 - David Lingmerth(-15)
2014 - Hideki Matsuyama(-13)
*Stats from my sheet and Fantasy National*
Strokes Gained: Approach
Proximity from 150-175 & 175-200 Yards
Par 4 Scoring
Let’s now jump in and take a look at some of the top plays in each price range.
Top Tier Targets
Rory checks every box in my model this week as he returns to the Memorial with a T15 in 2014, T4 in 2016, and T8 last year. The form really stands out as well as he has a win at the PLAYERS, and nine Top 10 finishes in 10 stroke-play events on Tour this year. He is #1 in my stats model on my sheet and looking at the last 24 rounds data(via FNGC), he ranks 1st in SG: Ball Striking, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdies Gained, and 14th in Par 4 Scoring. I won’t be paying this high up in cash games but Rory is easily my top GPP play this week.
From a cash game perspective, Matt Kuchar is the player I am building around this week. He is a course horse who won this event back in 2013 and has 11 straight finishes of T26 or better with seven total Top 10 finishes in that time. Like McIlroy, he has yet to miss a cut this season(13 of 13) and has added two wins(Mayakoba Classic, Sony Open), six Top 10’s, and nine Top 25 finishes. Statistically, he is also Top 10 in Ball Striking, Proximity, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, and Bogey Avoidance. He will not only be a core play for me in cash games but also makes an upside GPP play as well.
Mid Tier Targets
Sticking with the consistency narrative, Emiliano Grillo has missed just one cut(Honda Classic) in 15 events but unlike the two players above he has not shown near as much upside. The good news is that with a price that has dropped on both sites, Grillo does make an excellent cash game play on both sites. Not only does he have form on his side, he has also played here three times and finished T11, T40, and T23. He has struggled on Par 4’s lately(80th in this field over last 24 rounds) but ranks Top 15 in SG: Ball Striking and Fairways Gained and is 33rd in Opportunities gained. If he can make some putts this week I think the price is right to add him to your GPP core as well.
Sticking with the strong ball striking/terrible putter narrative we have Keegan Bradley. That’s right, he is ranked 2nd in SG: Approach and 6th in SG: Ball Striking in this field ut is 106th in SG: Putting. Like Grillo, this limits his upside on a given week but he consistently makes cuts(13 of 15 this season with four Top 25’s) so when in the mid range of pricing, always makes him a cash game option. More good news as he has three Top 25’s and two Top 10’s here at Muirfield Village in his last four trips.
Knox has positive value on both sites when looking at my sheet as he returns to Muirfield Village with four straight made cuts including a Top 25 in 2015. He has also been fairly consistent this season making 12 of 15 cuts with two Top 10’s and six Top 25’s. Statistically is where he stands out for me this week as he ranks 13th in SG: Ball Striking, 6th in Fairways Gained, 8th in SG: Approach, and 24th in Opportunities Gained over the last 24 rounds. He is a great play in all formats.
If you are looking to go stars and scrubs in GPP’s this week, Lingmerth is one player I will get some exposure to. Here is the thing. He has been terrible this year missing four of six cuts so far with no finishes inside the Top 40. Good news is that he has excellent course history having made five straight cuts here including four straight inside the Top 30 and a win in 2015. These reason I am not concerned about the form is the fact he went into the 2015 win here missing four of his previous five cuts and last year had missed four straight cuts before the T29. Great punt for GPP formats.
Thanks for checking out the article and if you have any questions about the cheatsheet, players I listed, or anything DFS PGA related at all please reach out in the RotoPros Community Chat or on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Not a RotoPros member yet? Be sure to get over and SIGN UP for your FREE two-week trial. You won’t be disappointed.