Tuesday starts off with two early games(CWS@CLE, SEA@NYY) but for this article, I will be looking at my core pitchers and top teams to target for the 13-game main slate. Let’s get started.
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With that, let’s jump into the picks.
After allowing four or more earned runs in five of his first six starts, Thor rebounded in a big way tossing a four-hit, complete game shutout against the Reds while striking out 10 and walking just one. I see the positive trend continuing as he sits with an xFIP(3.43) over a run and a half lower than his ERA(5.02) while also allowing a low 85.3 mph average exit velocity(18th best*) and 27.1 % hard contact rate(14 best*). Tonight, he is in another good spot as a -135 favorite in a game with the lowest total(7.0) of the night against a Padres team that has been worse against righties with a .294 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and 27% K rate. All things considered, Syndergaard is my top pitcher and safe in all formats.
The 35-year-old veteran has been a core piece of the Cubs rotation this season as he enters tonight with a 1.73 ERA and outside of the game he left with injury, he has averaged six innings per start. That is bigger than it seems as the league is average lowering than 5.5 innings per start, the lowest number in years. Lester is never going to provide consistent upside from a strikeout perspective but gets an elite matchup today against the Marlins who have scored a league-low 91 runs. Lester is also in play in all formats.
Also Consider: Jose Berrios(MIN) as a GPP only play as he hasn't been as good on the road but faces a Jays team that strikes out 27% of the time against right-handed pitchers
Teams to Target
Houston Astros vs. Danny Duffy(KC)
The Astros have been one of the best offenses in baseball this season and while they rank 11th in runs scored(171), they rank 1st in wRC+(126) and 3rd in ISO(.212). They have also been very good at home and have been terrific against left-handed pitching with a .365 wOBA(4th), 135 wRC+(1st), and .217 ISO(6th). Duffy hasn’t been bad by any means and has limited hard contact but the Astros provide value for cash games as well as upside for GPP formats and can be stacked in many different ways as one of the deepest lineups in the league.
Cash Game Options to Consider
Yuli Gurriel(1B), Jose Altuve(2B), George Springer(OF), Carlos Correa(SS), and Robinson Chirinos(C) who all have strong splits against left-handed pitching
Add for GPP for Formats
Alex Bregman(3B) who is starting to heat up with hit sin four straight including four home runs and nine runs batted in
Cincinnati Reds vs. Mike Fiers(OAK)
I feel the Reds will be a bit overlooked tonight seeing as they are just mid-pack in implied runs(4.1). I get it as they rank 22nd in runs scored and 24th in wRC+ on the season but one place they do stand out is the power department as they rank 11th in ISO. They have also been much better as of last with a .344 wOBA, 113 wRC+, and .238 ISO over the last seven days which rank among the league-leaders in that time.
They also get a terrific matchup tonight against Mike Fiers who has allowed five or more earned runs in half of his starts this season and sits with an ugly 6.81 ERA and an xFIP of 5.33 which is not much better. While he doesn’t walk many, he also doesn’t have the K upside to get out of trouble and is also been prone to giving up the home run. With the inconsistency but big-time upside, I will be almost exclusively using them in GPP formats.
Cash Game Option to Consider
Jesse Winker(OF) who is still cheap enough on both sites, has been hitting towards the top of the lineup, and has been very consistent with hits in 11 of his last 13 games for an average of 13.1 FanDuel/9.9 DraftKings points per game.
Eugenio Suarez(3B) who is hot lately with hits in 10 of his last 13 games and comes in to tonight with home runs in three straight. Nick Senzell(OF) who already has three home runs through his first four major league games or Derek Dietrich(OF) who has four home runs in his last three games.
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