Welcome back to another full day of Major League Baseball. There are 10 games today but in this article, I will be looking at my core pitcher and some teams to stack for the five-game main slate. Let’s get started.
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With that, let’s jump into the picks.
The Braves 2015 first round pick is looking better than advertised and has been the core piece of a struggling rotation. He was a hard-luck loser in his first start where he allowed just four hits and one earned run and has since won three straight and has dropped his ERA to 1.14 overall and while that is due to regress, the xFIP is still in elite territory at 3.04. He is currently limited to a two-pitch arsenal(65% fastball, 27% slider) but can locate the mid 90’s fastball very well and is generating a whopping 13.8% swinging strike rate with the slider(42% outside the zone!). That combination has allowed him to limit opponents to a very low 84 mph average exit velocity and 27% hard contact rate. Tonight, he faces a Diamondbacks offense that has been much better against lefties making him my top pick at pitcher in all formats.
Also Consider: Patrick Corbin(LAD) who has a ton of upside and should be lower owned in a tougher matchup against the Dodgers
Teams to Target
New York Yankees vs. Mike Leake(SEA)
The Yankess are currently #1 in implied runs(5.1) for the main slate and are easily my top team to target. They get an elite matchup against Mike Leake who has had an ugly start to the season and is well on his way to giving up another 20+ home runs as he has already surrendered an astounding 11 through seven starts. The advanced stats don’t show much promise either as he has allowed an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph(381st of 391 qualified pitchers) with a 45% hard contact rate. The Yankees are starting to get healthy and have huge upside tonight and can be target in all formats.
Top Cash Game Options: D.J. LeMahieu(2B), Gleyber Torres(SS)
Add for a GPP Stack - Luke Voit(1B), Gary Sanchez(C), Miguel Andujar(3B)
Seattle Mariners vs. J.A. Happ(NYY)
I am staying in the same game for my second team target tonight. The Mariners are down near the bottom when looking at implied runs but I am most certainly not buying it. They lead the league in runs scored(221), wRC+(120), and ISO(.224) and have also been very strong against left-handed pitching with a .345 wOBA, 122 wRC+, and .208 ISO. I am also not at all worried about J.A. Happ on the mound as he has seen his K rate drop off the table(16.8%) early in the season and he has had a ton of trouble keeping the ball in the park having given up nine home runs in seven starts(17% HR/FB). Yankee Stadium is also a top hitters park so load up on both sides of this game.
Top Cash Game Options: Mitch Haniger(OF), Edwin Encarnacion(1B)
Add for a GPP Stack: Tim Beckham(SS), Domingo Santana(OF), Ryon Healy(3B)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Michael Wacha(STL)
For value tonight, I will be turning to the Pirates who are finally getting healthy, especially in the outfield. The get a plus matchup against Michael Wacha who, despite holding opponents to one earned run in each of his first two starts, sits with and ugly 5.17 ERA and 4.82 xFIP. That says a lot about just how bad he has been lately giving up 16 earned runs over his last four starts with five long balls. For the season, he is walking 15% of batter he faces with a 1.63 WHIP which is giving his opponents a ton of opportunities to score runs. I love mixing in a Pirates stack to help get the big boys in tonight.
Top Cash Game Options: melky Cabrera(OF), Gregory Polanco(OF), Adam Frazier(2B)
Add for a GPP Stack: Josh Bell(1B), Starling Marte(OF)
For more picks, advanced stats, and analysis be sure to jump into the RotoPros Community Chat and grab a copy of my DFS MLB Cheatsheet.