MLB DFS Breakdown July 13th, 2019

Here are some of my targets for pitching and offensive-stacks for tonight’s slate. If you have any questions, be sure to join me in the RotoPros Slack Chat. Not a RotoPros member yet? Get over to the site and sign up for a FREE one-week trial!

Top-Tier Pitching Targets:

Charlie Morton ($11,800 DK, $11,500 FD): Morton has the best ERA in the AL at the All-Star break this season, 2.32, and had his best start of the first half at-home against this same Orioles-offense less than two weeks ago posting 7 innings of 1-run ball, along with 12-K’s and the win. Look for much of the same tonight as Tampa is coming off of a 16-run barrage last night, combined with the fact the Orioles SP, Means, has peripheral numbers that signal regression is on the way. 

Chris Sale ($10,500 DK, $10,700 FD): Sale has been somewhat inconsistent this year, however the 3.12 xFIP accompanying his 4.04 ERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. The Dodgers have struggled at times against strong LHP this season, and that continued last night as Eduardo Rodriguez posted 7 innings of 10-K ball along with the win. 

Other options to consider:

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Mid-Tier/Cheap Pitching Targets:

Brad Keller ($5400 DK, $7100 FD): Recency-bias may drive the ownership down a little bit here as Duffy was highly owned in the same matchup last night, however Detroit has less success against RHP as they have posted a .285 wOBA, 75 wRC+, and .150 ISO this season. 

Matt Harvey ($4600 DK, $6000 FD): As most of the baseball-world knows the Angels suffered a tragedy a few weeks ago when SP Tyler Skaggs was found passed-away in his room. Last night the team pitched a combined no-hitter, Trout is on-fire, and there seems to be some special unity going on in the Angel dugout. I like Harvey as a GPP dart tonight for the reasons mentioned above, along with the fact that he is essentially pitching for the future of his job, and Seattle has been sub-par offensively the last two weeks with a .273 wOBA, 72 wRC+, and .174 ISO. 

Other options to consider:

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Top-Tier Offensive Stack:

Colorado Rockies: Simply put the Rockies are a much better offense at-home than they are against all other MLB teams and on the road. Tonight they are implied for the most total runs at 7.25 and will be the most popular cash-game stack this evening. Roark has a 3.51 ERA with a 4.42 xFIP which also suggest regression is on the way. 

Other options to consider:

Cincinnati Reds 

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Mid-Tier/Cheap Offensive Stack:

San Francisco Giants:The Giants have been a surprisingly efficient offense the last month and face off with Zach Davies tonight who has a decent 3.07 ERA with a 5.00 xFIP which suggests major regression is on the way. Over the last fourteen days the Giants have a .361 wOBA, 126 wRC+, and .254 ISO which is very impressive. 

Other options to consider:

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Home Run Calls:

David Dahl, Evan Longoria 

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