Happy Friday baseball fans. After a scattered Thursday, we have a huge 13 game slate tonight so let’s jump in and take a look at some top pitchers and teams to stack.
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With that, let’s jump into the picks.
Jacob deGrom(DK - $11,300 FD - $10,700)
We get a terrific selection of pitchers tonight and topping my ranks is Jacob deGrom. Since getting blow up by the Marlins in mid-May, he has been phenomenal holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven of eight starts(2.65 ERA/3.18 xFIP) while striking out 61(30.2%) and walking just eight(4%). None of the top arms have standout matchups but deGrom is facing the Phillies who have been slightly below average vs. righties with a .311 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and 23% K rate. All things considered, he is my top pitcher in all formats tonight.
Eduardo Rodriguez(DK - $8,700 FD - $8,100)
E-Rod has been on a roller coaster ride all season giving up four or more earned runs in eight of his 17 starts but also only giving up two or fewer in eight starts as well. There is more good news as he sits with an xFIP(4.13) that is over a half run better than his ERA(4.79) and his xwOBA(.309) is also 19 points lower than his wOBA(.328) given up to opponents. He and the Red Sox are currently the biggest favorite(-225) on the board facing a Tigers team that has scored a league-low 296 runs on the season and also rank near the bottom against lefties with a .296 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and 25.4% K rate. I love E-Rod as my SP2 on DraftKings and would also consider him in all formats on FanDuel if I wanted to upgrade my bats.
Martin Perez(DK - $7,900 FD - $6,900)
If you want to go even cheaper with your SP2 on DraftKings or really load up on bats in GPP on FanDuel, consider Martin Perez who checks more than enough boxes tonight. He has rebounded after a terrible 2018 and has won seven of his 14 starts while striking out just under a batter per nine. He isn’t going to win you a GPP on his own but has been solid with a 4.15 ERA and what stands out the most is the matchup as he goes up against his old team in the Rangers who rank near the bottom of the league against lefties with a .302 wOBA, 80 wRC+, and eye-popping 29% K rate. The PTS/$ upside is most definitely there tonight.
Teams to Target
Boston Red Sox vs. Gregory Soto(DET)
The Red Sox currently lead all teams with a 6.3 implied run projection tonight and it is easy to see why. They face rookie Gregory Soto who has struggled mightily giving up 28 hits in his first 21.1 innings and has yet to go five innings in any of his six starts. While the 8.44 ERA is not going to stay there, the 6.33 xFIP is still right near the bottom of the league. He is a two-pitcher pitcher(fastball-75%, slider 21%) and both have been hammered this season and the Red Sox are the top hitting team against sliders so far this season. There are some rain concerns but as long as it is not postponed, I will have lots of exposure.
Cash Options: Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez
GPP Options: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr.
Game Stack - Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
This is a game where we can grab some value bats for cash games, stack one team, or go all out and game stack. We get two of the worst pitchers on the board going head head and it starts with the Jays Aaron Sanchez who has given up four or more earned runs(36 total) in six straight starts with seven home runs against as well. He has also shown slight reverse splits this season and has struggled more against righties. For Bundy, he has given up nine earned runs(four home runs) over his last two starts and sits with a 4.91 ERA/4.75 xFIP on the season and an ugly 18% HR/FB rate considering he also gives up 43% flyballs.
Top Blue Jays Options: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Eric Sogard, Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr,
Top Orioles Options: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez
For more picks, advanced stats, and analysis be sure to jump into the RotoPros Community Chat and grab a copy of my DFS MLB Cheatsheet.