daily fantasy football

What I learned From Week Eight in the NFL

Another week is in the books and that means it’s time to go over a couple things that stood out and how we can use that analysis moving forward. Below you will see a preview of one of these takeaways and to see the rest of the article you must be a RotoPros member. If you haven’t joined RotoPros yet, make sure to get sign up for a FREE two-week trial or grab a monthly or yearly membership.

The Tight End Position Continues to be the Most Volatile Position for Fantasy

The tight end position has been an absolute mess in 2018 and the hardest position to fill on a week to week basis. Let’s take a look at this weeks results from the main slate($3 Play Action on DraftKings). The Bucs O.J. Howard(19%) was the highest owned tight end on the slate and did come through with four catches for 68 yards and a touchdown and Travis Kelce(10.3%) was the third highest owned and came through with six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. After those two, however, David Njoku(11.3%) and C.J. Uzomah(9.9%) were #2 and #4 in ownership at the position and neither recorded a catch on Sunday. Of the remaining six tight ends to finish Top 10 in ownership George Kittle(3.5%) was the only one to record more than four catches and Jared Cook(8%) joined him as the only other tight end with 50 or more yards.

The takeaway here is that on a week to week basis, the tight end position is a great spot to pivot away from some of the high owned guys if you are multi-entering GPP contests.

What I learned From Week Seven in the NFL

Another week is in the books and that means it’s time to go over a couple things that stood out and how we can use that analysis moving forward.

THE KERRYON JOHNSON BREAKOUT GAME WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR

The Lions traded up to the #43 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft to pick Kerryon Johnson in hopes of him being their next lead back. After receiving under 50% touch share in the Lions backfield to in five straight games to start the season, he finally got the lion’s share(no pun intended) of the touches on Sunday against the Dolphins. He led the team rushing the ball 19 times for a whopping 158 yards and was also targeted three times in the passing game catching two for an additional 21 yards. He did break off a 71-yard run in the second quarter but remove that from his total and he still gained 4.8 yards per carry on the other 18 rushes. Overall, it was exactly what the Lions and fantasy owners wanted to see from the rookie and while I don’t expect him to see 20+ carries, 15 a week is most definitely in the cards and he has shown he can be successful in that range. He will now have a chance to prove himself even further in the coming weeks as two of the next three games are against Top 10 rushing defenses.

What I learned From Week Five in the NFL

Just when we think we have a big enough sample size to predict the results week in and week out, the NFL throws us a curve ball like it does over and over again. In this article, I would like to go over a few things I learned from some other notable performances and how it can help us make fantasy decisions moving forward.

What I learned From Week Two in the NFL

Another incredible week is in the books, well besides Monday Night Football, and there is once again a ton of things to take away from these games. In this article, I would like to share a few things I learned that can help us evaluate things moving forward. Let’s get started.

A.J. Green Went Off but Another Player is Emerging and it isn’t Who We Thought

I personally thought this game was an easy Under being a Division game on Thursday Night Football but it was anything but that. The Bengals came out firing as they took an early 21-0 lead s Andy Dalton hit A.J. Green for three touchdowns. What stood out, however, is that after those three scores, Green only saw four more targets the rest of the game even with the Ravens making the game close.

Going into the season, it appeared that John Ross was going to be the breakout candidate and emerge as the #2 option in the passing game. That does not appear to be the case as Tyler Boyd out targeted him 5-2 in week one and then 9-4 in week two. Those nine targets tied A.J. Green for the team lead and Boyd also led the team with 91 receiving yards and had a touchdown himself.

I fully expect this trend to continue as it appears Dalton trusts Boyd more than Ross at this point. For season-long leagues, if you are looking for a waiver wire pickup to help fill out some depth, Boyd definitely has value. For DFS, he makes an excellent value play in the right matchups as Green will continue to see most of the coverage shaded his direction.

The Kansas City Chiefs Made the Right Decision Giving the Keys to the Offense to Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs faced some criticism in the off season after trading away Alex Smith who had taken them to the Playoffs in three straight and four of his five years with the team. The team’s All Pro Tight-End, Travis Kelce, seemed to be the most disappointed after finding out over social media of the trade. For good reason, as Smith was partly responsible for Kelce’s emergence posting back to back 1,000 yard seasons and four straight years with 800+ yards.

After sitting on the bench for almost all of last season, Patrick Mahomes took over under center and immediately made an impact in week one. Although he was not very accurate completing just 15 of 27 attempts(56%), he threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns. I have to admit I was a little skeptical of a repeat performance with that inefficiency but felt he could grow into a more accurate quarterback and was surrounded by a ton of weapons. He got a much better matchup in week two in a game that had the highest total(53.5) and he once again didn’t disappoint. He completed 23 of his 28 passes(82%) for 326 yards and six touchdowns! He also got two of his big targets in Travis Kelce(7/10, 109 yards, 2 TD) and Sammy Watkins(6/7, 100 yards) involved after a quiet week one for each of them.

I understand that he is running very touchdown hot at the moment but with the amount of weapons(Hill, Kelce, Hunt, Watkins) he has around him and the lack of defense they Chiefs are showing, I expect him to be in the mix week in and week out as the top quarterback.

David Johnson is in Big Trouble if the Cardinals Can’t Find Any Offense

The fans are calling for Josh Rosen in Arizona and it makes sense as off-season signing, Sam Bradford, has been nothing short of horrible. After a terrible week one where he completed just 20 of 34 pass attempts(59%) for 153 yards and one interception, he was even worse in week two. Sure he completed 63% of his pass(17 of 27) but threw for just 90 yards with another interception and still no touchdown passes.

While this hurts Larry Fitzgerald’s value, he was a later round pick in season-long and is a vlaue play in DFS. Who it hurts even more are David Johnson owners who took him with a top three pick(season-long) or paid top 5 running back prices for him in daily. He has rushed for just 48 yards in each of the teams first two games and without a passing game he is likely to see a ton of eight and nine man boxes from here on out.

He is a hold in season-long formats as you won’t be able to get any value for him in a trade and for DFS purposes, I would fade until further notice.

Philip Lindsay is the Real Deal and that Crushes the Value of Royce Freeman

While I do have some shares of David Johnson in season-long leagues, I drafted a ton of Royce Freeman in rookie drafts for dynasty leagues and even a couple times in redraft formats. If you are like me, you feel the same pain. A week after they split carries and both ran for 71 yards, undrafted rookie, Phillip Lindsay, out carried Freeman 14-8 in week two, out rushed him 107 to 28 and the only thing that saved Freeman owners was a short, 1-yard touchdown run. Lindsay also looked more explosive on the field averaging 7.6 yards per carry to Freeman’s 3.5 per carry. Through two games, Freeman has also only seen one target in the pass game while Lindsay has four.

I am not going to panic and drop Freeman as I still think he has a shot to take over(call me crazy) but I will and already have gone out and picked up Lindsay everywhere I can in season-long and will continue to roster him in DFS.

The Passing Game is Everything in the Modern NFL

You have probably heard about the new NFL being passing oriented but this week takes the cake. Joe Mixon on Thursday Night Football rushes the 21 times and going into the Monday night game, he is the only running back to carry the ball 20 or more times. Taking it even further, only nine running backs carried the ball 15 or more times. Points per Reception is the name of the game when playing fantasy and four running backs had double-digit targets including Christian McCaffrey who caught 14 of 15 for for 102 yards, Chris Thompson who caught 13 of 14 for 92 yards, Theo Riddick who caught nine of 12 for 47 yards, and Saquan Barkley who caught 14 of 16 for 80 yards. There was 15 running backs in all(prior to MNF) to catch five or more balls.

This greatly increases the value of bell cow backs and also gives added value to some players you would maybe not consider in the “Old NFL”(Theo Riddick who didn’t carry the ball once). Keep this in mind when setting your season-long and DFS lineups.

Thanks for checking out the article and if you have any questions you can hit me up in the RotoPros Slack Chat or on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). If you are not a RotoPros member yet be sure to get over to the site and get your FREE two-week trial. You won't be disappointed.