Each week Dane brings you his preview article and in addition, we also have a DFS PGA cheatsheet where both Dane and Chris rank their top plays in each price range. To get access to this sheet and our Slack chat, grab a FREE trial and use promo code “RP50” and get 50% off your first payment. With that, let’s jump into the article.
Dane’s Darts for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
We have been on a hot run here at RotoPros and we look to continue that this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a very fun event with some top tier competition. The Florida swing continues as we gear up for The Players Championship next week at TPC Sawgrass.
As mentioned last week, my goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can be different through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games.
I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.
I have played around with some builds and the balanced route is looking like the way I will go this week. With how pricing is I do think stars and scrubs will be a bit more popular so I like this construction as a way to be a little different.
We want golfers who are overall good ball strikers this week because if you miss fairways and greens wildly you will be in the water. Long irons come into play a lot more than at most courses and that is also something I am looking for this week. It is a very long course, but we have seen a lot of non bombers win here.
$10K + Range
- Rory McIlroy ($11,500) – Rory has the history at this course with 5 top 11 finishes in 6 tries, including a win. His game seems to be in a good place overall and I do expect him to break through on a Sunday soon. When it comes to DFS, even though he is the most expensive golfer you don’t necessarily need him to win. You need a top 5 out of him and then have other top finishers.
Notables: Tyrell Hatton
$8K and $9K Range
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800) – Fitz is one of the guys I mentioned above that isn’t the longest hitter but has traditionally played very well here. To go along with that he has been 5th and 11th in his two PGA Tour starts of 2021, gainings strokes in every facet of his game. I expect him to be popular but I will get different elsewhere.
- Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – Another guy who has been very good here is Moli. I love what we are seeing out of him coming back this year after an odd year for him in 2020 where he didn’t play very much. He has 3 top 10s in 4 starts this year and should be able to improve on that at a place he has won at. $8,700 is a magnificent price.
Notables: Tommy Fleetwood, Will Zalatoris, Jordan Spieth
- Lanto Griffin ($7,700) – Lanto is a guy I will continue to ride here. In his last 3 starts he has been very good tee to green and has turned that into 7th, 26th and 22nd place finishes. Lanto’s debut here at Bay Hill was last year when he finished 36th.
- Alex Noren ($7,300) – I really like the form we are seeing from Noren. He has popped on these leaderboards lately and looked like he found his tee to green game last time out at the Genesis. He gained nearly 4 strokes on approach there and I expect a fine week from him here.
Notables: Corey Conners, Luke List
- Sebastian Munoz ($6,700) – We saw some life out of Munoz last week when he gained 5 strokes on approach finishing 22nd at the WGC. I don’t love this range but if you want stars and scrubs you will need some value plays to make the rest of your lineup work. He is one of my favorites in this range.
Notables: Matthew NeSmith
If you guys have any questions please let me know in the Slack! Be sure to listen to this week’s RotoPros PGA Video where Chris and I break down the course, weather and some of our favorite plays.