Each week Dane brings you his preview article and in addition, we also have a DFS PGA cheatsheet where both Dane and Chris rank their top plays in each price range. To get access to this sheet and our Slack chat, grab a FREE trial and use promo code “RP50” and get 50% off your first payment. With that, let’s jump into the article.
Dane’s Darts for The PLAYERS Championship
Big time tournament this week at TPC Sawgrass. The PLAYERS is sometimes referred to as the 5th major and it is always an event that I look forward to. We see a lot of carnage here usually and I expect nothing different this week.
As mentioned last week, my goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can be different through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games.
I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.
TPC Sawgrass is a course that was built to be a complete test of a golfer’s game. There are drivable par 4s, reachable par 5s, long and tough par 4s and a variance of par 3 yardages. There will be no keying in on a certain proximity range this week as you better be in control of every club in your bag if you want to do well. The greens here are a bit smaller than average and they play very fast with a lot of undulations.
With that being said I am going to be focusing on great approach players this week. Over the years, approach play has been a major cog in deciding a winner here with the exception of Webb Simpson in 2018. Below are my key stats in my stat model this week.
- SG: Approach
- SG: Ball Striking
- Par 4 Scoring
- SG: Around the Green
- Bogey Avoidance
$10K + Range
- Dustin Johnson ($11,200) – If I do come to this range this week I believe it will be to DJ. He has been in great form except for his -10 strokes putting for the week last time out. I think he bounces back here and it could be in a big way. I do like the balanced build a lot more than coming up here this week though.
$8K and $9K Range
- Collin Morikawa ($9,400) – Love this range this week and it starts with Morikawa. The guy is a walking flame with his irons and I expect another strong week from him here. He hasn’t played a full tournament at Sawgrass but did open with a -4 round before the cancellation last year.
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) – I expect him to be popular this week but this is a perfect intersection of trending form and a lovely price. Cantlay is one of my favorites to win this tournament and is a top play for me regardless of ownership.
Notables: Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger
- Will Zalatoris ($7,600) – This range is strong as well and gives us guys who have top 10 upside for a value price tag. First is Zalatoris for me and I will continue to ride this form he has had since coming onto the PGA Tour. He continued his solid tee to green play last week at the Arnold Palmer and that translated to 10th place effort.
- Tommy Fleetwood ($7,900) – Tommy was right in the mix until a lackluster Sunday which has come to be expected from him. The good thing for DFS players is that he is priced below $8k and doesn’t necessarily need to win to pay off for you. The only place he struggled last week was off the tee. Tommy has previous finishes of 5th and 7th here at Sawgrass in 2018 and 2019.
Notables: Joaquin Niemann, Lanto Griffin, Corey Conners
- Keegan Bradley ($6,900) – Keegan is not a guy I like to play usually, but his tee to green game is always strong and it is up to his putter as to if he will have a good week or not. He has a 7th and 16th place finish his last two times here and comes off a strong week at the API. Overall, I am going to try to stay out of this range.
If you guys have any questions please let me know in the Slack! Be sure to listen to this week’s RotoPros PGA Video where Chris and I break down the course, weather and some of our favorite plays.