DANE’S DARTS: RBC HERITAGE
What a fun first week it was back for the PGA Tour! It was so nice to have the Tour back and see those guys out there competing again. I had sorely missed a 4 day sweat. This week the tour shifts to Hilton Head, SC for the RBC Heritage. I think it is a very interesting week with how they have done pricing and the fact that I think ownership will be skewed by recency bias.
As always, be sure to check out the RotoPros LIVE golf show that Chris and I record each week on Wednesday nights. You can find the show on YouTube via the RotoPros channel. There we discuss the course and a general overview of our strategy for the week. If you subscribe to the RotoPros channel on YouTube you will be notified each time we go live!
My goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can gain an edge through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games.
I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.
COURSE & KEY STATS
Harbour Town GL is a narrow course with small greens that, over the years has favored accuracy players. Even more pronounced than last week, I am favoring golfers who can play strategic off the tee over just complete bombers. I don’t think anyone can just go out and overpower this place. Again, with some of the top players in the world, I feel that they can adapt to any type of course so I mean this more for guys lower down the price tiers.
Approach play is always important here and you want to see guys who are able to hit these small greens to give themselves birdie chances. I threw in a bit of around the green play into my model as well since players are sure to miss at least a few more greens than normal.
Putting is something I don’t look at very often, but in a tournament like this I am factoring it in just a bit since guys will need to not only convert on birdie chances, but also save pars from around the green.
Here is a look at my complete list of key stats for the week:
- SG: Ball Striking
- SG: Approach
- Fairways Gained
- DK Points
- SG: Putting
- SG: ARG
It doesn’t look like weather will be a major factor this week, but we do need to keep an eye on it going into Wednesday night. The early wave of golfers on Thursday and Friday look to have the better conditions so things should even out over the two days.
Again, be sure to check out our live show on Wednesday night, where we will update this if necessary.
This is an awesome week to play the strategy game. I believe that guys will weigh last week’s form a bit too much and lead to some underowned plays for us to exploit in GPPs. I am not going to base all of my plays on last week’s form whether good or bad. Some guys may have just had a bad week and can get on a course they feel comfortable and crush this week.
The next thing with strategy is really figuring out what you, and everyone else, is going to do with these underpriced “studs” in the $8K range. I will leave most of this conversation for when I get there, but DK really gave us something to think about this week.
What I took from last week’s ownership numbers was that it was really spread out with how strong the field was. I think we could see that again this week, so for the most part I am planning to just play the guys I like and not let myself get swayed by ownership projections.
This tournament is usually the week after the Masters, so as for course history, it is nice to see that a guy plays good here, but if he hasn’t I’m not going to write him off sense they are probably running on fumes when coming here in the past.
$9K + RANGE
I am going to combine these two ranges this week. There are only 4 golfers in the $9k range and DK really priced up the guys that played well. For a lot of these guys, it is either their debut at Harbour Town or they at least haven’t been here very often.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($10,700) – I guess theoretically he has turned himself into a bomber, but Bryson falls into the category of golfer that I think can adapt to anywhere he goes. He has 2 top 5s in 4 starts at Harbour Town, so he knows how to get around this place. The price is tough, but he is playing so well right now I don’t think I’ll be fading him.
- Webb Simpson ($9,000) – One of the highest owned guys last week when he missed the cut. This course really fits Webb’s game and it has shown in the past. 16th, 5th and 11th here the last 3 years and has a runner-up finish here in 2013. Webb rates out number 1 in my model this week. I’ll be interested to see if people jump off a little bit after last week, but as of now it doesn’t look like they will.
Notables: Justin Rose
Here is the most important range of the week. It is absolutely stacked with talent, but some of the guys didn’t look the best last week. I’m more than happy to look at a longer body of work with all these guys and will be very excited to see projected ownership in this range tomorrow night.
- Gary Woodland ($8,400) – I haven’t completely decided what I am going to do here yet this week, but I will for sure be on Gary. He got a $400 price drop from last week and looked solid most of the tournament. He should have no trouble being patient and playing for position off the tee. He fits into tons of builds this week.
- Rickie Fowler ($8,100) – At the time of writing Rickie looks to be the lowest owned of the studs who are priced down in this range. I’m perfectly fine going to him at sub 10% and the lowest price I’ve probably ever seen for him. He didn’t look great last week in a missed cut, but was -4 thru 16 in R2 before going bogey, double bogey to finish.
Notables: Brooks Koepka, Tyrell Hatton
I am liking a lot of this range this week so feel free to mix and match in GPPs. There are a lot of matches to the course here and I think some of them will be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Just gotta find out who.
- Joel Dahmen ($7,500) – Joel picked up right where he left off at the break. He had a very solid week last week gaining 5 strokes on approach en route to a 19th place finish. The best thing about it? He didn’t get a price bump and now returns to a course that he finished 16th on debut a year ago. He ranks 4th in my overall model this week.
- Kevin Kisner ($7,700) – He may get a little popular this week, but I’m not super worried about it. He played a solid 4 rounds at Colonial breaking par in all 4. I like Kisner as a fit for Harbour Town and his past results show just that. 2nd here in 2015, he also added an 11th and 7th in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
- Brian Harman ($7,200) – Harman looked decent last week with a 23rd place finish. He will need to improve off the tee but the rest of his game looked really good, gaining nearly 4 strokes on approach. I like his history on Pete Dye designs, like this week and his history here includes 2 top 10s.
Notables: Shane Lowry, Harris English, Joaquin Niemann
I think we have a few options down here, but I don’t see myself having massive amounts of exposure down here with the underpriced guys in the $8k and $9k range.
- Matthew NeSmith ($6,600) – NeSmith was a guy who we were riding early this season. Last week, he made the cut finishing 49th. He did gain strokes on approach and on the greens. NeSmith is from South Carolina and went to college at South Carolina. Oh… and he proposed to his now wife right here at Harbour Town. Talk about ties to the area.
Notables: Doc Redman
Don’t be afraid to be different this week. This is a perfect week to play GPPs and take some shots on guys that may have not played great last week. Trust your gut. I wish all of you the best of luck and hope to see you in the Slack chat this week and on our live show Wednesday night!