DANE’S DARTS: WORKDAY CHARITY OPEN
As we continue with a year of firsts, the PGA Tour heads to Muirfield Village in Dublin, OH for the next two weeks. This course, usually home of only the Memorial Tournament, is one of the more prestigious on the PGA Tour. Everyone wants to win at Jack’s Place. The interesting dynamic this week will be to see how the Tour sets up the course versus what we usually see when we come here. I think we see a bit more scoring than we are used to in week 1 of 2.
As always, be sure to check out the RotoPros LIVE golf show that Chris and I record each week on Wednesday nights. You can find the show on YouTube via the RotoPros channel. There we discuss the course and a general overview of our strategy for the week. If you subscribe to the RotoPros channel on YouTube you will be notified each time we go live!
My goal for this article is to break down each price range from a strategy/lineup construction standpoint. Once I do that, I will list a couple of my favorite plays in the range. I really want to help you by talking through how we can gain an edge through construction and not necessarily just taking 3-4 < 5% owned players. That is one way I have really improved in DFS golf, understanding that you only must be different to a point. I usually focus on lower entry max GPPs (single entry, 3 maxes, and 5 maxes) but will speak to certain plays that are better in larger fields and cash games.
I build my models and do a lot of my early week research over at Fantasy National. If you haven’t checked them out, I would highly recommend giving them a shot. It is really a great place to build your own custom models based on the things that you think are important for the week. If you have a certain inclination that one stat will be more important than another you are able to weigh it higher and build out your own model in that way. You can check out their site at www.fantasynational.com.
COURSE & KEY STATS
Muirfield Village is a Jack Nicklaus designed course that is a par 72. This is usually a tough test of golf over the 4 days and I expect to see that next week when it hosts The Memorial. As for this week, there is talk of the rough being down a bit and the greens running slower than usual. I think this will lend itself to a bit more scoring than what we usually see, but I don’t just think we are going to see an absolute birdie fest.
I am still going to look at what stats usually mean you play well at Muirfield Village which is led by SG: Approach. It has definitely been the most important stat over the years here. I think you will need the same type of game to have success here, since it is still the same course. I did add in opportunities gained to help bring in some of the guys who have been giving themselves a lot of birdie looks. In addition, I focused in on par 5 scoring as well as par 4 scoring on holes between 450 and 500 yards, since that is a fairly big portion of the holes here.
Here is a look at my complete list of key stats for the week:
- SG: Approach
- SG: Ball Striking
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: Par 5
- SG: ARG
- Par 4s: 450-500 Yards
- DK Points
This does look like something we will need to watch as close up to lock as we can. The weather looks perfect on Thursday with a slight chance of storms. On Friday, there is a good chance of storms in the afternoon with the wind picking up a little bit. This could potentially lend itself to seeing a wave advantage for the afternoon guys on Thursday, but we will need to check this on Wednesday night for sure.
Like I mentioned, I do want to favor guys who are giving themselves a lot of opportunities at birdies. I think scoring will be a bit lower than we are used to here. That should allow some lower value plays to pop this week, but not quite like what we saw last weekend. I think both types of builds are viable this week (stars and scrubs, balanced). You have some value pieces that you need to squeeze in guys like JT, but I also like the idea of jamming some plays in from the mid ranges.
Current form is slowly inching its way up in my model in terms of importance. We are finally getting a bit of a larger sample with some guys. I like riding some of the players that have found something during this restart and can keep that hot run of form going throughout the rest of the summer.
$10K + RANGE
This is a much stronger field than we had a week ago. A lot of these guys wanted to get here to see the course a week ahead of The Memorial. I can definitely see the value to start up in this range this week.
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,600) – 11th in his first tournament since the break at The Travelers, Cantlay now returns to the site of his 2019 Memorial win. He was also 4th the year prior. He is atop my model this week and although the putter carried him a bit at The Travelers, he still gained strokes all the way through his bag as well. He should contend again this week at a course he loves.
- Justin Thomas ($11,100) – What a horrible week for JT at The Travelers. He looked pretty lost. A week off should help him reset and return to the form we have saw from him in his other 2 starts since the restart. He was top 10 at both the Charles Schwab and RBC Heritage, gaining 10.9 strokes total on approach between the 2 events. He doesn’t have the greatest form here but his past history does include 2 top 10s.
Notables: Hideki Matsuyama
$8K AND $9K RANGE
Tons of plays here this week. I really think you can get a couple of plays here in your lineups along with the value in the $7K range. It’s nice to see the field as strong as it is after last week.
- Joaquin Niemann ($8,400) – He has been a guy I have rode a lot, especially since the restart. I don’t care that he had a bad Sunday a couple weeks ago, I will go right back to him. He is 2nd in my model this week and has some nice history here. 6th and 27th in his 2 trips to Muirfield. I expect him to breakthrough in a big way soon.
- Marc Leishman ($8,700) – He is another guy who has had success here. 2 top 5s and 4 top 15s in his last 5 trips. Since the restart his iron play picked up right where it left off in the spring. If he can get things going on the greens then Leishman should be in for a strong 2 weeks at Muirfield.
- Viktor Hovland (9,500) – He continued his strong play last week, but again couldn’t make any putts. This will be his first trip to Muirfield and I would think that the easier setup will help him adapt to the course this week. He is another guy I think has a breakthrough waiting right around the corner.
Notables: Justin Rose
I like the plays we have here this week, especially in the upper part of this range. I don’t expect ownership to get really out of hand with any of them so play the guys that you like.
- Joel Dahmen ($7,700) – Again, I really like the guys that have shown some form since the return. He’s really been 1 round away in these tournaments from giving us a massive finish. I expect him to be solid for us again this week.
- Max Homa ($7,100) – I really like this value this week. Homa popped top 10 in my stat model and finished 37th here in his only appearance last year. Has had some pretty good iron play since the restart, let’s hope he can put the rest of his game together as well.
Notables: Kevin Streelman, Harold Varner III, Ben An
I will say, I don’t really like this part of the value tier very much. If I can I will prefer not to dip all the way down here in lineups.
- Matthew NeSmith ($6,800) – He popped a bit for us at the RBC Heritage finishing 33rd for very cheap. I think he has as good of a chance as anyone down here in giving us a strong finish. He missed the cut at The Travelers, but still gained 3 strokes on approach in those 2 rounds. This is his first trip to Muirfield.
Notables: Henrik Norlander
I wish all of you the best of luck and hope to see you in the Slack chat this week and on our live show Wednesday night! Remember to always trust your gut and play the plays that your research leads you to!