It has been an absolutely full weekend down in Miami. 2 Xfinity races and a truck race, proceeding this Cup race. In the past NASCAR has gone to Homestead for the season finale in November. This year that finale will be in Phoenix and we get Homestead much earlier in the year. We have a lot of history and data to look at for this track so let’s crush this weekend.
The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!
I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!
This week we are looking for 2-3 dominators. Compared to last week, we will see no near the tire wear and should see even more competition for position. I haven’t played with many builds yet, but on first look it does look like DraftKings did a good job with pricing this week overall.
It is always a fun race when we come here and should see a little strategy throughout the race. I am going to continue to focus on recent form, due the fact that these races have been so close together. I don’t see that these teams can possibly be as prepared as they normally would. Also, as usual no practice or qualifying.
I think there is plenty of value again that you can get up in this range. Most of the guys up here are the ones that have been competing for championships at Homestead Miami over recent years. All have had decent success here.
- Martin Truex Jr ($11,400) Starting 6th – Ok I’m not being a homer I promise. As we have talked about for the last few weeks it seems like the Toyotas have found something (Other than their issues to start at Martinsville). I really like that combined with the fact that Truex has 3 straight top 2 finishes here.
- Kyle Busch ($10,100) Starting 4th – Kyle continues to struggle just a bit. I am going to continue this trend though and ride with the Toyotas. I feel like he is just too cheap. He won this race to win the championship last year. You have to expect him to turn things around at some point this year and I want to be there when he does. Maybe he carries his momentum from tonight’s Truck race into tomorrow.
Notables: Kevin Harvick
$8K AND $9K RANGE
I’m not in love with this range like I usually am this week. We do have a couple guys we can target for PD upside or some guys if you want to get a low owned dominator.
- Matt DiBenedetto ($8,000) Starting 23rd – I’m going straight to the bottom of this range. I like the way he has been running lately and like the upside he brings starting 23rd. I don’t think I will have much ownership on the dominators in this range, but plan to get my exposure to the PD guys.
Notables: Matt Kenseth, Christopher Bell
$6K AND $7K RANGE
Some good value again down here that we can mix and match with our favorite top priced dominators.
- Erik Jones ($6,500) Starting 15th – He almost feels like the same play as he has been the last few races. I really like Jones this week along with his teammates Kyle and Truex. I’ll say it again, he gives us top 5-10 upside for $6,500. I’ll take that being in a Joe Gibbs Toyota.
- Cole Custer ($6,000) Starting 35th – He is going to be chalky I’m sure but he is just a fantastic play starting this far back. Over the last 3 years in Xfinity he has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st at Homestead. Cash game lock on DK and I expect to be heavy on him in tournaments.
Notables: Aric Almirola, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon
BELOW $6K RANGE
I think there are a couple options down here if you want to jam in more than one very top priced driver. Much like last week, that $6k range is much better than coming down here but I don’t mind it if you need the salary.
- Ryan Preece ($5,700) Starting 33rd – Preece, in my opinion has top 20 upside and that would be more than enough at this price. Not a guy you want to just go super heavy on, but is another one to mix and match into your lineups for value.
Notables: Michael McDowell
Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Good luck to everyone this weekend!