We have another loaded weekend of NASCAR action at Pocono. This weekend was actually scheduled to be a doubleheader already at the beginning of the year, so this isn’t really unexpected for the teams. We always see exciting races at Pocono and I expect no different this weekend.
The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!
I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!
Since they are running 2 races in 2 days the races are shorter than what we usually see at Pocono. I think I am going to go for 1-2 dominators on Saturday. DK has priced a few place differential plays up, but I still like some of them when we have limited dominator points.
I am going to focus on some past history here, but also on guys who have had fast cars this year. We will be able to learn a lot tomorrow about Sunday and adjust for race number 2. There will also be spots we can leverage ownership. Be sure to join us in Slack throughout the weekend for some updated thoughts!
This is an interesting range this week. We have Bell priced way up because he is starting 36th. I like the others a bit better than him as there is tons of downside risk to Bell. I personally like starting below this range a bit better for Saturday’s race and going balanced.
- Chase Elliott ($10,700) Starting 5th – Chase has plenty of upside this weekend. He had a great car this year. 6 top 10s in 8 races here at Pocono. He is my favorite dominator in the $10k + range on Saturday. I think ownership will be spread out up here in lineups that people start this high.
Notables: Kevin Harvick
$8K AND $9K RANGE
There are a lot of both place differential plays and dominators in this range. I really like going balanced here and mixing and matching a lot of these guys.
- Ryan Blaney ($9,000) Starting 2nd – Blaney has been good here in the past and has the car to dominate this race. If he can get around Almirola early on then he can definitely be one of the dominators in this race. This is a fine price for the upside that he possesses and there are some good plays around him that I don’t think his ownership gets out of control.
- Clint Bowyer ($9,500) Starting 18th – I hope this price scares some people off. Bowyer has been very good at Pocono in the past and has tons of upside starting 18th. What makes me really like him is that there are some dominator plays I like cheaper than him, so it makes it a bit easier to fit him.
Notables: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, William Byron
$6K AND $7K RANGE
Some good value again down here that we can mix and match with our favorite top priced dominators.
- Erik Jones ($7,100) Starting 19th – I’m going to go right back to him at this cheap of a price and if he kills me he kills me. 3 straight top 5s here at Pocono and starting 19th has tons of upside at $7,100. I’m a sucker I guess.
- Matt DiBenedetto ($7,600) Starting 21st – This is a play that I really had to compare with Aric Almirola on the matrix. I put Almirola in for 30 laps led and with that he would need an 8th place finish to beat Matty D finishing 15th. That leaves me leaning toward Matt, because I think he has upside of around a 10th place finish.
Notables: Aric Almirola
BELOW $6K RANGE
Man this range is tough this week. I don’t think I will need to come down here as much if I start my lineups balanced and there is really only one play I like down here if I have to play someone in this range.
- Ryan Preece ($5,800) Starting 30th – Preece probably gives us around 20th place upside tomorrow and is about the best you can ask for of anyone in this range. He works if you need to fit some higher priced drivers in. This is not someone that I am going to force in to loads of my lineups more than likely.
Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Good luck to everyone on this full weekend of racing!