A jam packed race schedule continues, as the Cup Series ends a 4 day stretch of racing for NASCAR at Kentucky. After they leave Kentucky, they will go to Bristol on Wednesday for the All-Star race, which looks like it’s going to be very fun, and then to Texas on Sunday. This has been a demanding schedule for teams to get these cars ready, but pretty fun for us to watch.
The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!
I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!
If you’ve watched the other races here this week, you know how hard it is to pass at Kentucky. The Cup cars should drive a bit better through the turns, which may make it easier for guys to pass hugging the while line. With that said I will probably focus on having 2 dominators in my lineups this weekend. With 267 laps that is plenty of time to rack up laps led/fastest laps.
Someone I have been using a lot of this weekend so far is the pole sitter. It seems like they can get out to the lead and drive away a lot of the time, as drivers tend to not fight as hard for the lead at the very beginning of the race. I will be doing that again here.
We again have the same situation. Bell starting 34th and priced over $11k. I think he is fine, but I don’t plan on having massive amounts of him.
- Kyle Busch ($10,100) Starting 1st – Here is the pole sitter this week and I will have a good amount of exposure to him. He should be able to get out front and lead a good portion of this race and the competition caution being so early doesn’t change much for me since he has a great pit crew if he comes down pit road. This team will turn it around soon and pick up that first win of the season, it could be today.
Notables: Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell
$8K AND $9K RANGE
This is a loaded range for me this week. I like a couple dominators from here as well as place differential plays.
- Martin Truex Jr ($9,100) Starting 9th – Truex has been really good here in the past and I like pairing him with Kyle for a few different reasons. Price makes it pretty easy to do so as Truex is well underpriced imo. Truex would dominate the race later on so that would give Kyle time to dominate for us. Lastly, if the Gibbs team as a whole hits on something then there is some correlation there as well.
- Tyler Reddick ($8,200) Starting 24th – I like what this team has done in 2020 at these types of tracks. Starting 24th he has tons of upside and the price isn’t completely out of hand. In all 4 of his starts here in the Xfinity series he finished top 10 and had 1 win in 2017.
Notables: Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones
$6K AND $7K RANGE
As much as I like the range above, I’m not overly excited about this one. There are still a couple plays here but if I fall in this range I will probably end up in the $6,000s more than the $7,000s.
- Ryan Newman ($6,100) Starting 23rd – Newman looks like the new guy they will continuously price down here. This type of track seems to fit his MO. Don’t let anyone pass me. He is usually pretty good at just battling throughout the race to inch his way to the front and I like him a lot starting 23rd.
- Austin Dillon ($6,500) Starting 19th – This play kind of goes back to my thoughts on Reddick. RCR has exceeded expectations this year and I think they can outperform where they are both starting this week and push for a top 10 finish. That would be great value at the price for Dillon.
Notables: Cole Custer, Ryan Preece
BELOW $6K RANGE
Not a ton down here once again and I like the low $6k range a lot more as a place to end my lineups.
- Michael McDowell ($5,700) Starting 30th – He is one of the 2 plays I like down here. You could use him to jam in 2 higher priced dominators. He should be “fine” but I don’t really see him as a guy who has massive upside.
Notables: John Hunter Nemechek
Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Good luck to everyone and let’s bring one home!