It’s Bristol baby! NASCAR heads to the World’s Fastest Half-Mile this week in Bristol, TN. This place is always exciting and I look forward to another hectic day. It has been a fun return to racing with so many races bunched together. Let’s continue to crush today!
The way I plan to structure this article each week is to talk about strategy for the track we are at and then dive into each price range. I will probably give my favorite play or 2 from each range but I really want the focus to be on strategy. NASCAR only has 40 drivers in each race so I’m not going to write up half the field. Let’s dive in!
I do a lot of my weekly research over at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet (https://frcs.pro). They give you a great database to sort out stats so you can see who has good track form along with track type history. They really have all the tools you would want to analyze what drivers are trending and how they match up with the race ahead. Be sure to check them out!
Bristol is a very steep short track. Something that I touched on in the season preview article was that there is a different package in 2020 for short tracks and road courses. The package emphasizes driver skill, which is already very important here at Bristol.
This week I am looking for 2-3 dominators in my lineups. With 500 laps we have the potential for tons of dominator points, so you can’t solely load up on place differential plays. Chris posted some stats on this in our Slack channel, so be sure to check that out!
This range is obviously loaded with top talent in the Cup Series. I will touch on my favorites below, but I want to mention that I am a bit worried about what we’ve saw out of Kyle Busch so far this year. This is a track he loves, so maybe we see him come back to life. He is someone I still won’t have heavy ownership on this weekend.
- Kevin Harvick ($12,200) Starting 8th – Harvick has been really good since the return. He is a car I could see dominating this race for a portion. Maybe he comes in a bit lower ownership than usual based on his recent track history not being the best. He finished 2nd with this package in Phoenix earlier this year. Chase Elliott ($11,300) Starting 6th – Finally broke through and picked up the win on Thursday night in Charlotte. It was long overdue for a guy who has been in one of the best cars in 2020. I like him to use this confidence for some more good finishes. Chase started from the pole and led 93 laps in Phoenix with this package.
Notables: Joey Logano
$8K AND $9K RANGE
Another stacked range here that has 2 of my favorite dominators.
- Brad Keselowski ($9,100) Starting 1st- Brad will he popular but I don’t see how you fade him in this spot. He is fairly cheap, will have the first chance to lead this race (those laps tick by pretty quick) and with this package he led the 2nd most laps to Chase with 82 at Phoenix. Track history isn’t great, but did finish 3rd in the fall.
- Ryan Blaney ($8,600) Starting 4th- I like this play for tournaments. I have been on Blaney a lot during this return to racing and no reason to hop off here. 10th, 4th and 7th in his last 3 at Bristol. Car has been very good this year and I think he can dominate a portion of this race.
Notables: Kurt Busch
$6K AND $7K RANGE
A lot of potential plays in this range and some are very underpriced. I plan to mix and match these plays as this is a loaded range for value.
- Bubba Wallace ($7,500) Starting 36th – What a disappointing end to Charlotte for Bubba. Was running so well, but made contact with the wall sending him towards the back. It was nice of him to show that speed though. He has been decent here and starting 36th gives us some upside.
- Erik Jones ($7,000) Starting 15th – Maybe I’m a fish, but what is this price? I think it is way too cheap and I think Jones can potentially give us a top 10, which would be great for this price.
- Ryan Newman ($6,800) Starting 17th- Another driver I think is too cheap. He has been popular recently but at $6,800 I think he is a very good value. Good history here at Bristol.
Notables: Matt DiBenedetto, Christopher Bell, Ryan Preece, Daniel Suarez
BELOW $6K RANGE
There are so many plays in that range just above, but I do see some value here if you are jamming in the top priced drivers.
- Michael McDowell ($4,900) Starting 25th – This is very cheap for McDowell. If he can finish around where he is or around 20th he will pay off and allow you to get a lot of top guys in your lineup. As always, down here spread your exposure and don’t go all in on one guy.
Notables: Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek
Please feel free to hit me up with questions in Slack. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the 2020 season preview article. It is filled with great strategy and info on car/crew chief changes for the season. Let’s keep the hot streak alive for RotoPros!