Welcome back baseball fans. We have another full day of baseball but in this article, I will be covering the five-game main slate & looking at my top pitchers and teams to stack.
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Walker Buehler vs. SDP
By default, Buehler is the top option on the slate and I am not thrilled to pay over $10K for him against one of the best lineups in baseball. The biggest issue for Buehler has been the fastball which he throws 65% of the time. It is down about a mile per hour on average and only generating a 4% swinging-strike rate. The good news if digging deep is that the Padres rank 21st against fastballs this season.
The other good news here is that despite the lack of swing and misses, he has gone six innings in all three starts, has only walked one batter, and allowed just four earned runs. I am not sure I will be playing cash games as the risk here is quite high but this is most likely where the chalk is going to fall.
Alex Cobb @ HOU
For value, I will be turning to Alex Cobb who has been a pleasant surprise in his first season for the Angels. Sure, the 4.63 ERA after allowing three earned runs in both starts doesn’t look great but hear me out.
During those two starts, opponents have a .393 BABIP which is very unsustainable and that is backed up by an xFIP(1.67) that is three full runs lower than that ugly ERA. On top of that, he has seen an insane jump in K rate(35%) which is backed up by a 19% swinging-strike rate. Digging even deep we see the difference could be coming from dialing back the fastball usage(33%) by over 10% and throwing more changeups(45%) and curveballs(21%) which have been very effective.
I also like the matchup here as the Astros have really struggled lately losing nine of their last 10 games, scoring just 2.7 runs per game for a 73 wRC+. You can do much worse on this slate……I think.
Top Team to Stack
*Reminder it is very important to sequence as much as possible to have the most correlation possible in your lineup*
Boston Red Sox vs. Justin Dunn(SEA)
The Red Sox are going to be the chalk tonight sitting at the top of the implied run rankings but over a half run(as I write this). It makes sense as they went into Wednesday night leading the majors with 100 runs scored overall and also lead all teams in hitting against righties with a .364 wOBA and 135 wRC+.
They now face Justin Dunn who has had big control issues(10 walks in 9.2 IP) ut has yet to be punished as he enters tonight with a respectable 3.72 ERA. Well, I feel that run is coming to an end very soon and hopefully tonight as Dunn is running a very unsustainable .095 BABIP to go with an ugly 6.79 xFIP that is three runs higher than the ERA.
Everything points to the Red Sox hitting their implied run total and likely pushing for the Over, as well.
Based on this projected lineup, I have two stacks I like. It will be a mix of 1-2-3-4 and 2-3-4-5.