Welcome to a new NBA season. Last year I felt like we were finally hitting our stride when the NBA shut down due to Covid in March. I am really looking forward to this season with all of the roster changes league wide. It should mix things up and we should be able to find advantages early in the season and then even more advantages as the season moves on and we find out the true usage of the players.
The purpose of this article is to figure out some trends in NBA GPP lineups. The easiest way to explain what GPP is that it is NOT Double ups or 50/50s and the prize money is guaranteed. Basically anything less than 40% chance of winning and has a guaranteed prize pool is a GPP. This includes single entry, 3 entry max, 150 max, etc. Tournaments that are not Guaranteed are tournaments and can pretty much fit the same mold we are talking about here. (the only real difference is there is a chance the contest does not get off).
I have been digging through historical slates and trying to pick up on as much information as possible. I have noticed a lot of trends when looking at different types of GPP tournaments.
- Single entry GPPs tend to have a higher CASH line than a 150 max GPP, but have a lower TAKEDOWN score.
- 3 Entry Max trend closer to Single entry CASH and TAKEDOWN lines, but both tend to be higher in the 3 entry max.
- As you move up in price from .25 to $50.00 the winning score tends to drop. Once you reach the $50.00 price point the winning scores start rising as you rise in entry fees. ($50 winning score is higher than $27, but lower than $100)
Why is this all so? It kind of all makes sense. In single entry and 3 entry max contests the vast majority of the players in these are only going to be playing these contests. So they tend to take less risks as they don’t want a completely dead lineup halfway through the night by going way off course from the field. So they will play mostly the chalk plays of the night and maybe pivot 2-3 players. This leads to a very condensed area of cashers, the people that are winning these contests tend to pivot off at least 3-4 players. Small changes can make all the difference.
When it comes to 150 max contests there are going to be a lot of people that are just running optimizers open (or fairly open) and this is going to lead to a ton of dead lineups to start the night. This is why the cash score tends to be lower, but also the winning scores are significantly higher. People are willing to take more and more risks as they have more lineups leading to including those 2-3 players that are completely off the radar, but absolutely crush their value in their lineups.
The moves in price make sense as well, the more money you are putting into a lineup the less likely you are to take risks, but once you reach the $100+ entries the more you are running into the best players in the world who are taking all the necessary risks. This leads to higher winning scores and people rubbing their heads wondering how they possibly could’ve put the 3rd string PG that was just pulled from the D league yesterday who only played because of 2 injuries that happened mid game in their lineup.
Using this information we can leverage ourselves against the competition. Make that extra pivot in single entries and tighten your core in the 150 max contests so when it hits you’re cashing in all 150 entries and if your core just misses then you can still break even and cash in half because we know the cash line is going to be lower.
In my next article I am going to discuss how to build GPP lineups. Stay tuned.